tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6606798.post3267556870035982716..comments2024-03-28T22:32:50.562+00:00Comments on Liberal England: The Liberal Democrats made too much of the Eastleigh by-electionJonathan Calderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00730157683743989696noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6606798.post-45845966551368014892015-02-11T21:03:29.137+00:002015-02-11T21:03:29.137+00:00Hywel: Many thanks for the comment.
The sentence...Hywel: Many thanks for the comment. <br /><br />The sentence you quote should have read: "I cannot picture Labour winning". <br /><br />As it now does.Jonathan Calderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00730157683743989696noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6606798.post-4810638242064738142015-02-10T23:16:57.619+00:002015-02-10T23:16:57.619+00:00"This is not so much that I believe Nick is i..."This is not so much that I believe Nick is immensely popular as because I cannot picture winning a prosperous suburban seat like this."<br /><br />I've some sympathy with that. But it's hard to ignore 4 different polls, over a reasonable amount of time all showing a simlar patter (ie its very marginal).<br /><br />That this has now fed into a sense of momentum will only make things more difficult.<br /><br />The Labour vote is artificially low due to a long-standing squeeze (it was the only seat won by the LDs to see the Labour vote fall in 1997 - and in 92). I've heard it suggested that the educated nature of the constituency made the tactical argument easier to win. However those are just the sort of voters for whom a tactical vote has not been a consideration since 2010. That may not hold for a General Election but who knows!<br /><br />I wouldn't bet either way - though I think Nick will hold on by a narrow but not actually uncomfortable type of margin and that will be largely down to the historic organisation. One of the lessons that can be taken from Eastleigh is that long standing organisation, records of who votes what way and and understanding of "how we win here" make a big difference.Hywelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16094171587140185827noreply@blogger.com