tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6606798.post4112394495685173280..comments2024-03-28T22:32:50.562+00:00Comments on Liberal England: Canterbury Lib Dems told to delay candidate selectionJonathan Calderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00730157683743989696noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6606798.post-9708134547211472372019-09-12T13:46:52.354+01:002019-09-12T13:46:52.354+01:00Good spot Alex . Almost ... they polled 7.9%
BGood spot Alex . Almost ... they polled 7.9%<br />BWilliamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01027112902926199113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6606798.post-19374950720674151362019-09-12T13:43:41.505+01:002019-09-12T13:43:41.505+01:00Film buffs may recall that in _A Canterbury Tale_ ...Film buffs may recall that in _A Canterbury Tale_ (Powell and Pressburger), Canterbury cathedral is represented by that of St Albans, definitely a LibDem target.Phil Beesleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18442987962398498812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6606798.post-47849978568092553532019-09-12T10:11:00.981+01:002019-09-12T10:11:00.981+01:00Bill: Looks like a promising seat for us, but wher...Bill: Looks like a promising seat for us, but where were the Tories? Did you just miss them out, or did they really poll so low they weren't worth mentioning?Alex Macfiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17583248255801362106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6606798.post-31733653864346067302019-09-12T08:23:15.275+01:002019-09-12T08:23:15.275+01:00May I have a go at making a case for Canterbury?
...May I have a go at making a case for Canterbury?<br /><br />Lib Dems will conceivably be strong contenders in unlikely seats if viewed through the distorting lens of the 2017 results . <br /><br />Such seats will have some common characteristics. They will have a strong LD vote in 2010 – the last time the Party fought elections at a similar rating in national opinion polls.<br /><br />They will have evidence of a latent significant UKIP and Brexit Party (BP) level of support.<br /><br />The voting across the constituency in the 2019 Euros will show strong support for the Party and for the BP.<br /><br />Let’s look at the unlikely Canterbury where Labour made a surprising gain – polling 25572 votes to beat the Tory 25385. There was no UKIP candidate and of course the election pre-dated the formation of the BP.<br /><br />Evidence for UKIP/BP strength comes in the 2015 result when UKIP polled 7289 (13.6%) and the Tories 22918 with Labour at ‘just’ 13120.<br /><br />So what of the 2010 result, when the LDs were at similar levels of support to today? Con 22050 44%, LDs 16002 (32%) and Lab 7940 (16%).<br /><br />Allow a moments speculation. At the time of the next General Election the UK has not left the EU. BP and Tories have not done a deal and Farage is in full campaigning mode. The Labour position communicated by Corbyn falls apart. The population have had enough of this Brexit malarkey and just want to get on with life.<br /><br />Finally, let’s have a look at the Euro 2019 results for the constituency:<br />BP 37%<br />LDs 25.7%<br />Grn 14%<br />Lab 8.5%<br />UKIP 2%<br /><br />Happy Days<br /><br />Bill le Breton<br /><br /><br /><br />Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01027112902926199113noreply@blogger.com