Ramsbottom is more important than Elvis

Labour's press team has been having fun with the result of yesterday's local by-election in Nottingham, where the Liberal Democrats finished behind the Buss-pass Elvis Party.

The result is a reminder that, though we Lib Dems are doing well in our areas of strength, our vote can by close to non-existent in areas where we have no history of campaigning. But as a pointer to the next general election it has little value.

There was, however, a local by-election yesterday that does look significant from that angle. Last night the Conservatives gained the Rambsbottom ward on Bury Council from Labour.

Mike Smithson writes on Political Betting:

Ramsbottom, where my mother was born, is part of Bury North which was taken by the Tories off Labour at GE2010. It is a seat that EdM really has to win back at GE2015 if his party has any hope of forming a majority. 

It is a ward that has a history of hard-fought contests between CON and LAB. In 2011 the two parties tied and LAB was given the seat after lots were drawn. 

A key factor in this latest election was the very high number, 60% or so, of postal votes which is vey good indicator of local party organisation. 

So a very good result for the Tories and a very bad one for Labour.