Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Top 20 Liberal Democrat targets on 8 June



After the carnage of 2015, I was too scared to spend much time studying the general election results in detail.

Election Polling is made of sterner stuff and has produced a list of Liberal Democrat targets in order of the swing needed to win them. And the picture is more encouraging than I expected.

Here is the top 20:
  1. Cambridge (Labour) 0.58%
  2. Eastbourne (Conservative) 0.69%
  3. Lewes (Conservative) 1.07%
  4. Thornbury & Yate (Conservative) 1.54%
  5. Twickenham (Conservative) 1.63%
  6. Dunbartonshire East (SNP) 1.97%
  7. Kingston & Surbiton (Conservative) 2.39%
  8. St Ives (Conservative) 2.56%
  9. Edinburgh West (SNP) 2.93%
  10. Torbay (Conservative) 3.42%
  11. Sutton & Cheam (Conservative) 3,93%
  12. Bath (Conservative) 4.06%
  13. Burnley (Labour) 4.08%
  14. Bermondsey & Old Southwark (Labour) 4.36%
  15. Yeovil (Conservative) 4.67%
  16. Fife North East (SNP) 4.80%
  17. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (SNP) 5.62%
  18. Colchester (Conservative) 5.74%
  19. Cheltenham (Conservative) 6.06%
  20. Cheadle (Conservative) 6.08%
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4 comments:

  1. Anonymous18 April, 2017 22:31

    Encouraging?

    Today's snap poll implies a national LD-Con swing of 3% and a national Lab-LD swing of 4%. That implies 3 current seats (including Richmond Park) would be lost to the Tories, and on the basis of your list 1 would be gained from Labour. It looks as though the party would be struggling to improve on its 2015 showing.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Paul Valentine19 April, 2017 00:06

    Small amend! 2015 surely in the opening line?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Jonathan Calder19 April, 2017 00:25

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  4. David Bertram19 April, 2017 13:13

    Looking forward to helping win back Twickenham!

    ReplyDelete