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Last night the Liberal Democrats failed to gain a Wiltshire Council seat from the Conservatives by just 14 votes.
Commenting on Lib Dem Voice, Mark Pack described this as "good news tinged by disappointment",
But if you study the preview by Andrew Teale - it takes more than a Tuesday poll to put him off - you will find that it was not good news at all.
Because the seat in question, Till and Wylye Valley, was won by the Lib Dems in both 2009 and 2013.
And if we are failing to win seats we held even in 2013, we are not doing well.
None of this is meant to be disparaging about our campaign in the seat and the people who worked in it.
Nor is it wise to make too much of an individual local by-election. It could be that the Conservatives fielded a particularly strong candidate here.
But it is an appeal for realism about local by-elections. We should be honest with ourselves about how we are doing and not, for instance. make too much of town council by-elections because we are desperate for good news.
After all, as we are only a few months on from a decisive Tory general election victory, it would be remarkable if they weren't doing well against us in local by-elections.
Or take a look at the recent UKGov poll for London mayor, where just one out of five 2019 Lib Dem voters expressed support (4%). It is a tricky contest with a popular incumbent and a strong independent challenger, but the Lib Dem vote seems to be less sticky than the Greens who are on 7%.
ReplyDeleteI thought you might have realised by now, Johnathan, that you don't make it to the top in our party by confronting problems at its heart and getting those oldies at the top to face up to the consequences of their inaction, you do so by telling the latest batch of new young infantry how wonderful they are and if you just work extra hard at being a liberal you will get your reward.
ReplyDeleteRather reminds me of Oh What a Lovely War without the catchy songs or perhaps Bridge over the River Kwai with a less optimistic ending.
I thought you might have realised by now, Johnathan, that you don't make it to the top in our party by confronting problems at its heart and getting those oldies at the top to face up to the consequences of their inaction, you do so by telling the latest batch of new young infantry how wonderful they are and if you just work extra hard at being a liberal you will get your reward.
Rather reminds me of Oh What a Lovely War without the catchy songs or perhaps Bridge over the River Kwai without the happy ending.