Strong evidence that Tory MPs expect to lose the next election

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Two prominent young Conservative MPs with majorities of over 4000 have decided not to contest the next general election.

At 34, William Wragg is already chair of a Commons select committee and a vice-chair of the 1922 Committee. But faced with the prospect of defending a majority of 4423 over the Liberal Democrats in Hazel Grove, he has thrown in the towel.

And Chloe Smith is 40 and has already served in the cabinet, even if it was only for six weeks under Liz Truss. Her majority over Labour in Norwich North is 4738 and, again, she has announced she will not be fighting the seat at the next election.

The theory in Westminster is that both, despairing of their chances of holding seats with majorities that size, want to find a second career outside politics while they are young enough to record comparable achievements in it.

Or as an unnamed Conservative MP put it to the Mirror:

"Anyone with a 6,000 majority is gone - it could be higher, it could be 8,000 or it could be 10,000."

"It will be worse in the North East than in the Midlands. These are the Red Wall voters who trusted us and we f***ed up, essentially."