A by-election in Somerton and Frome: puzzlement in Mid Bedfordshire

David Warburton, the MP for Somerton and Frome, has announced that he is to resign from the Commons.

He lost the Conservative whip over a year ago because of allegations of drug use and sexual harassment. The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards had already found that he received a £150,000 loan from a Russian businessman without declaring it.

In his resignation letter Warburton admits cocaine use - after drinking 'tons of incredibly potent' Japanese whisky - but denies the harassment allegations and paints himself as the victim in the whole affair.

Somerton and Frome was a Liberal Democrat seat, represented by David Heath, between 1997 and 2010, and the party has an impressive prospective candidate already in place in the shape of Sarah Dyke.

It will take lots of work to win here, but the swing needed is significantly less than the ones we have recorded in our three by-election gains in this parliament.

Meanwhile in Mid Bedfordshire, the Lib Dems are selecting their candidate this evening.

But Nadine Dorries may be cooling on the idea of resigning. She has said she won't do so until she finds out why she's not been given a peerage.

This reveals a sense of entitlement that undermines the 'woman of the people' image she promotes. And I can probably help her solve the ministry.

If Boris Johnson promises you something and that promise is not fulfilled, it is usually not necessary to look beyond Boris Johnson to find out why.