I wrote this about Mid Bedfordshire back in July:
Labour has won vanishingly few seats like this one in recent decades, and Lib Dems will grumble about a strong Labour campaign being the Tories' best chance of holding on or ask how Labour are different from the Tories now. But Labour are allowed to fight Southern by-elections if they are want to.
Besides, it's not unknown for by-elections in Tory held seats to turn into two-horse races between Labour and the Liberals.
This is what happened in Brecon and Radnor in 1985 and Littleborough and Saddleworth in 1995. And we won both.
So a Labour intervention in Mid Bedfordshire does not mean the Tories are safe.
I won't tempt the gods by claiming that the Liberal Democrats are going to win the by-election, but I am happy to say that the Tories will finish third.
2 comments:
One could add Eastleigh (1994) as another by election where the Conservatives fell to third place, behind LDs and Labour. It could happen in Mid Beds, but I think it unlikely. Their vote share may well struggle to reach 30%, but I can't see both opposition parties overtaking them.
Thanks for the reminder about Eastleigh. There's a lot of campaign to go yet in Mid Bedfordshire, and if the Tories are already down to 30 per cent then they have big problems. But we'll see.
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