Saturday, September 16, 2023

The Tories will finish third in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election


I wrote this about Mid Bedfordshire back in July:

Labour has won vanishingly few seats like this one in recent decades, and Lib Dems will grumble about a strong Labour campaign being the Tories' best chance of holding on or ask how Labour are different from the Tories now. But Labour are allowed to fight Southern by-elections if they are want to.

Besides, it's not unknown for by-elections in Tory held seats to turn into two-horse races between Labour and the Liberals.

This is what happened in Brecon and Radnor in 1985 and Littleborough and Saddleworth in 1995. And we won both.

So a Labour intervention in Mid Bedfordshire does not mean the Tories are safe.

I won't tempt the gods by claiming that the Liberal Democrats are going to win the by-election, but I am happy to say that the Tories will finish third.

2 comments:

  1. One could add Eastleigh (1994) as another by election where the Conservatives fell to third place, behind LDs and Labour. It could happen in Mid Beds, but I think it unlikely. Their vote share may well struggle to reach 30%, but I can't see both opposition parties overtaking them.

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  2. Thanks for the reminder about Eastleigh. There's a lot of campaign to go yet in Mid Bedfordshire, and if the Tories are already down to 30 per cent then they have big problems. But we'll see.

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