I wrote this about Mid Bedfordshire back in July:
Labour has won vanishingly few seats like this one in recent decades, and Lib Dems will grumble about a strong Labour campaign being the Tories' best chance of holding on or ask how Labour are different from the Tories now. But Labour are allowed to fight Southern by-elections if they are want to.
Besides, it's not unknown for by-elections in Tory held seats to turn into two-horse races between Labour and the Liberals.
This is what happened in Brecon and Radnor in 1985 and Littleborough and Saddleworth in 1995. And we won both.
So a Labour intervention in Mid Bedfordshire does not mean the Tories are safe.
I won't tempt the gods by claiming that the Liberal Democrats are going to win the by-election, but I am happy to say that the Tories will finish third.
One could add Eastleigh (1994) as another by election where the Conservatives fell to third place, behind LDs and Labour. It could happen in Mid Beds, but I think it unlikely. Their vote share may well struggle to reach 30%, but I can't see both opposition parties overtaking them.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the reminder about Eastleigh. There's a lot of campaign to go yet in Mid Bedfordshire, and if the Tories are already down to 30 per cent then they have big problems. But we'll see.
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