GUEST POST The Lib Dems approach the general election in a far weaker position than in 1997

However many seats the Liberal Democrats win at the next election, the patchiness of their support and their lack of a clear 'third party' profile will remain a serious problem, argues Anselm Anon.

The results from the Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections were no great surprise. At first glance, by-elections in this parliament look similar to those in 1992-97, with a Conservative government running out of steam, and the Labour Party widely expected to win the next  General Election, and the Lib Dems also making gains.

In 1992-97, there were 18 by-elections, with four Lib Dem gains from the Tories. In this parliament, there have been 21 by-elections so far, also with four Lib Dem gains from the Tories. (There were no Lib Dem defences in either case.)

But looking more closely at the results illustrates the extent to which the Liberal Democrats have collapsed as a national political force. Jonathan Calder’s observation from 2015 onwards that "the Liberal Democrats need more good third places" remains the case.

Let’s look at the two sets of by-election results beyond the headlines, thus excluding the Lib Dem gains and also three seats where the Lib Dems didn’t stand. These were North Down in 1995 (in Northern Ireland), Southend West in 2022 (after the murder of Sir David Amess) and, in effect, the extraordinary case of Newham North East in 1994 (which deserves a post of its own).

This leaves 12 results from 1992-97, and 15 results thus far from 2019-24.

In 1992-97, the Lib Dems were second in 4 seats, third in 7, and fourth in 1 (a Scottish seat won by the SNP). This is just what we’d expect from a healthy third party. 

In 2019-24, the Lib Dems have been third in 2 seats, fourth in 7, fifth in 2, sixth in 2, and seventh in 2. 

Out of 15 results, they have been beaten nine times by the Greens, and twice by the Yorkshire Party – both parties which share many sensibilities with us. In addition, the Lib Dems have been beaten 9 times by far-right parties, twice by far-left parties, and twice by independents.

Of the two third places, one was the City of Chester, and the other was Mid-Bedfordshire. 

In Mid-Beds, a third place of 23 per cent was gained only at the expense of an enormous effort. City of Chester was a straightforward Labour hold, with the Tories remaining in second, and Liberal Democrats in third on 8 per cent. This would have been an unremarkable Lib Dem performance in 1992-97, but was among the best in this parliament. In the remaining by-elections that we haven’t won since 2019, we secured between 1 per cent and 4.1 per cent.

The Lib Dems are failing to inspire liberal-minded voters, let alone more pragmatic supporters, outside a few areas of existing strength. (John Curtice demonstrates this in relation to national polling, rather than by-elections.) It is becoming much harder to present the Liberal Democrats as the junior anti-Tory party, in a more crowded political marketplace. (This was never appealing ideologically, but has had electoral benefits.)

However many seats the Liberal Democrats win at the next General Election, the lack of a national network and a clear ‘third party’ profile will remain a very serious problem. It will be very difficult to grow in the future, especially against Labour incumbents, or in areas where the Greens (and potentially others) have developed a profile. 

Even the most optimistic aspirations for the General Election will not take the party back to 1997 in political terms. The challenge of moving on is cultural and intellectual, rather than narrowly electoral.

Anselm Anon has been a member of the Liberal Democrats since the 1990s.