Michael Mullaney, who was our candidate in Hinckley and Bosworth on Thursday, has tweeted a list of the Liberal Democrat near misses at this election. They form a handy list of targets for the next election.
The second column gives the number votes we were adrift of the winner, and the third the percentage swing needed to win it next time. It is this latter figure that determines a seat's ranking in the list.
All these seats are held by the Conservatives except Burnley, which is held by Labour.
%
Godalming and Ash 891 0.81
Farnham and Bordon 1349 1.27
Hampshire East 1275 1.27
Shropshire South 1624 1.57
Dorset North 1589 1.60
Romsey and Southampton North 2191 2.19
Cotswold North 3357 3.34
Torridge and Tavistock 3950 3.89
Burnley 3420 4.31
Hamble Valley 4802 4.35
Hertfordshire South West 4456 4.62
Salisbury 5285 5.27
Buckinghamshire Mid 5872 5.44
Sevenoaks 5440 5.45
Hinckley and Bosworth 5408 5.66
When I blogged about Gordon Birtwistle, who was our candidate in Burnley having been MP for the town between 2005 and 2010, I wondered about his claim that the contest was between him and Labour, But he turned out to be quite right.
WE HAAVE TO STRENGTHEN THE SEATS WE HAVE AND AIM FOR THESE TARGET SEATS. i NOTE REFORM HAS COME 2ND IN MANY CONSTITUENCIES.HOW DO WE START NULLIFYING THE RISE OF AN ALT RIGHT PARTY THAT MAY BE EMBOLDEND BY A TRUMP WIN?
ReplyDeleteThat's an interesting list. Do you happen to know how successful the Lib Dems were in attacking their target seats this time? I know that (for example) Godalming and Ash was a near miss, but what about any others? And also, which was the least expected gain on the night (according to the previous polling numbers, not according to the local activists!)
ReplyDeleteAs far as I can see, Godalming and Ash was the only target seat we didn't win on Thursday. It was a remarkable performance.
ReplyDeleteOn my list the only three we didn't make were G & A plus Farnham & Bordon and Romsey & Southampton North although I don't know to what extent the latter two were targets. I'd guess that the biggest surprise was Hampshire NE although I was aware that it like it's southern neighbour Hampshire E was very competitive.
DeleteA couple of other seats where we are within range but finished third like Salisbury.
ReplyDeleteExmouth & Exeter East - 3,341 (6.5%) behind the Cons
Aylesbury - 4,461 (9.3%) votes behind Lab