His conclusion:
Conservatives win: Alyn and Deeside, Delyn and Newport East. Put up very good fights in Bridgend, Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Newport West, Cardiff South and Penarth and Montgomeryshire, possibly winning some of them.
Liberal Democrats hold Brecon and Radnor and Ceredigion, pick up Swansea West, possibly lose Montgomeryshire on a bad night.
Labour: have frights in Bridgend, Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Cardiff South and Penarth, possibly Caerphilly. Lose (of the marginals) Alyn and Deeside, Swansea West, Delyn.
Plaid Cymru - put up a good fight in Ceredigion but fail to take it.
2 comments:
Conservatives should also win Vale of Glamorgan.
He counted the Vale, Cardiff North and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire as already safe for the Tories.
Beyond that I'd add Llanelli to the Labour fright column and move Newport East from the Tory gain to the Lib Dem gain column, but generally an excellent analysis.
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