Lib Dems go ahead of Tories in latest YouGov poll

The Liberal Democrats have overtaken the Conservatives have slipped to fourth place in a new YouGov opinion poll published today.

We are in third place in the poll on 17 per cent, with the Tories in fourth place on 16 per cent. 

Reform tops the poll on 29 per cent, with Labour in second place on 22 per cent.

All the usual caveats about making too much of one poll apply, but this still feels like a moment worth remarking. And it is a development that has been expected for some time, given recent trends in such polls.

The Tories are usually ruthless at getting rid of failing leaders, but the problem Tory MPs face is that their next leader will be chosen by the party's membership. 

There is no guarantee that this electorate will come up with someone better than Kemi Badenoch.

In the past Tory MPs have got around this problem by agreeing to put only one candidate to the membership (that's how Michael Howard and Rishi Sunak became leader), but Robert Jenrick and his followers would refuse to be party to such an arrangement unless Jenrick himself were that one candidate.

Labour are losing more votes to the Lib Dems than Reform

Luke O'Reilly has been looking at YouGov's first voting intention survey since the general election for Labour List:

Only a slight majority of Labour’s 2024 general election voters, at 54%, would still vote for the party if a general election was held tomorrow, the survey found.

Former supporters are jumping ship to the Lib Dems, 7%, the Greens, 6%, Reform, 5%, and the Tories, 4%. A further 17% of the 2024 Labour voters say they don’t know who they would vote for currently.

The polling leaves Labour with a voting share of just 26%.

The survey also shows that the Conservative Party has slid into third place at 22 per cent, three points lower than Reform, who now poll as the second biggest party at 25 per cent.

Given that our record haul of 72 seats at that election was the result of widespread dissatisfaction on the part of previous Conservative voters and a willingness among Labour supporters to vote tactically where we had a chance of winning, this is all very encouraging for the Liberal Democrats.

It also suggests Labour is too worried about Reform and not worried enough about us and the Greens.

How the Lib Dems will stand in the Commons after the election is not in our hands

It would mean a lot to the Liberal Democrats to be the third party in the Commons. again. Our leader would get two questions at every PMQs: our spokespeople would get called more and earlier in debates. And all that would mean more media coverage and more clips on social media.

But there's no likely Lib Dem performance at the next election which would leave the reclaiming of this status entirely in our hands.

Have a look at this opinion poll and the resultant forecast of how many seats each party will win by Stats for Lefties.

🗳️ Labour lead by 23pts (356-seat majority)

🔴 LAB 47% (+3)
🔵 CON 24% (=)
🟣 REF 10% (-3)
🟠 LD 9% (+1)
🟢 GRN 6% (=)
🟡 SNP 2% (=)

Via @wethinkpolling, 9-10 May (+/- vs 2-3 May)

I enjoy these forecasts of a Tory wipe out, but I don't take them too seriously. Besides, what interests me here are the Lib Dem and SNP totals.

A total of 38 Lib Dem MPs feels like a realistic idea of what a good election will look like for the Lib Dems. But note that we would only be the third party in the Commons because Labour had taken seats of the SNP in Scotland.

So just how things will stand for us at Westminster after the election is, to a significant degree, our of our comtrol.

Lib Dems score best opinion poll rating the 2019 general election

You won't catch Liberal England making too much of a single opinion poll, but it's hard not to be encouraged by Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest.

Labour 41% (-4)

Conservative 29% (+1)

Liberal Democrat 16% (+4)

Reform UK 5% (-2)

Green 4% (–)

Scottish National Party 3% (+1)

Other 1% (–)

The figure in brackets is the percentage change since the company's 30 April poll.

This is the Lib Dems highest rating in an opinion poll since the 2019 general election. I can't see exactly when the groundwork for this poll was carried out, but it must have been last week.

As this was a week of great Lib Dem activity and favourable publicity for the party, it would have been a disappointment if we hadn't gone up in the polls,

One swallow doesn't make a silk purse, but this poll may point to the end of an odd period when the Conservative vote has collapsed yet the Lib Dem vote has barely risen.

Six of the Best 585

Mark Pack blogs on the polling industry's inquiry into what went wrong with the polls conducted during the 2015 British general election campaign.

"Gould had long carved out an alternative viewpoint to that of Kinnock and Smith, putting forward arguments that were to look much wiser in retrospect than many were prepared to credit at the time." Alwyn Turner on Bryan Gould, who contested the Labour leadership with  John Smith in 1992.

Niall Meehan on Morris Fraser, child abuse, corruption and collusion in Britain and Northern Ireland.

Toni Airaksinen says you shouldn't report your professors' microaggressions.

The Hwicce of Rutland? Caitlin Green speculates on a possible Anglo-Saxon kingdom.

"Every paradise is lost. That’s kind of the point. Loss is the diagnostic feature of every paradise ever lived or imagined. But for five miraculous years and 120,000 miraculous words Gerald Durrell sustained a vision of paradise with joy in every day and every page." Simon Barnes praises My Family and Other Animals.

Do the Oldham East & Saddleworth opinion polls mean it's all over?

"On the face of it, it looks as though Labour have it in the bag," says Anthony Wells on UK Polling Report. But he goes on to enter some caveats:

Firstly this poll itself has the potential to change the result. By demonstrating to supporters of the coalition that the Liberal Democrats the best placed to beat Labour, it could encourage Conservative tactical voting for the Liberal Democrats. Against that is that the Populus data suggests there is already a substantial amount of Conservative tactical voting for the Lib Dems, and there would need to be truly massive tactical voting to make up the large Labour lead.

Secondly, there were a substantial amount of former Conservatives and Liberal Democrats who said don’t know or refused to give a voting intention. Overall, 24% of 2010 Tory voters did not provide a voting intention to Populus, a third of 2010 Lib Dem voters did not. ICM found a very similar pattern. While these voters have the potential to make a difference, remember they are already factored into ICM and Populus’s topline figures, as they assume a proportion of them will vote for the party they did last time (in the case of Populus it reduced the Labour lead from 19 points to 17 points).

Finally I wanted to look a the record of by-election polls, which has the reputation of being somewhat patchy.

He goes on to examine that record in by-elections held during the last parliament.

Incidentally, Anthony also says:

We don’t have detailled tables from Survation, the third company to produce a poll for Oldham East and Saddleworth, so we can’t draw any firm conclusions about why their poll showed the Lib Dems doing much better.

Metro opinion poll encouraging for Liberal Democrats

An opinion poll conducted for and reported in this morning's Metro made good reading for the Liberal Democrats:

The Lib Dems are on 33 per cent, the Tories are on 21 per cent and Labour lag behind on 18 per cent.

Only ten per cent of readers intend to vote for a minority party while 17 per cent remain undecided.

When undecided voters are removed the Lib Dems are on 40 per cent, Conservatives are on 26 per cent and Labour are on 22 per cent.

Of course, we always like opinion polls that show our party in the lead, but this one is particularly encouraging for the Liberal Democrats.

Because this poll was taken among "fully employed 18 to 44-year-olds, who read Metro at least three times a week and live or work in a city".

This suggests we are winning popularity among just the sort of people who should be supporting us: young, educated, urban. Those with an historical turn of mind could see it as the re-emergence of Orpington Man.

If we are to continue to make progress as a party, we are going to have to strengthen this appeal to the liberally minded. That is why I was pleased Nick Clegg (against some people's expectations) did not make great use of our promise of an in-or-out referendum on the European Union - and not only because I have always been against the idea.

We should be seeking to win and consolidate the support of people who do approve of our EU membership, not seeking to placate those who will always be against the idea. And I say that as someone who is not the most enthusiastic Europeans in Lib Dem ranks.

Scottish opinion poll points to Lib Dem gains

SNP Tactical Voting reports the results of a Populus/Times opinion poll conducted in Scotland. They are:

Labour - 37% (-3%)
Lib Dem - 24% (+1%)
SNP - 19% (+2%)
Con - 16% (-)

The blog says this would mean Lib Dem gains in Edinburgh South and Aberdeen South.

Liberal Democrats ahead of Labour in new opinion poll

The Sunday Telegraph reports a new ICM poll:

Asked who they would support in a general election, only 22 per cent of voters back Labour, with the party slumping behind both the Conservatives on 40 per cent and, crucially for Mr Brown's future, the Liberal Democrats who are on 25 per cent.

Poll shows No majority in Irish Lisbon Treaty referendum

From the Irish Times:

The Lisbon Treaty is heading towards a shock defeat with the No side now in the lead, according to the findings of the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll.

It will take an unprecedented swing in the last week of the campaign for the Treaty to be carried.

The poll shows the number of people intending to vote No has almost doubled to 35 per cent (up 17 points) since the last poll three weeks ago, while the number of the Yes side has declined to 30 per cent (down 5 points).

The number of undecided voters is still a significant 28 per (down 12 points) cent, while 7 per cent won’t vote.

The massive increase by the No vote since the last poll has mainly come through gains among undecided voters but, even more ominously for the Yes side, it has lost some support to the No camp.

When I wrote about the Irish Lisbon referendum at the end of April I quoted another newspaper report about an opinion poll:

Support for the treaty has fallen from 43 per cent in February to 35 per cent today among those entitled to vote in the referendum. Those opposed to the treaty have increased from 24 per cent to 31 per cent. The number of undecided voters remains almost unchanged, at 34 per cent.

All of which suggests that the No forces are winning the argument pretty decisively in Ireland, despite the poster above.

And as I said in that posting, it does not help the European cause in Britain that we have been left as spectators of someone else's referendum, waiting to see our fate decided

Today's opinion polls make an early election less likely

Three opinion polls were published today, and all three show sharp falls in the Labour lead.

The BBC has the figures.

ICM/The Guardian
39% - Labour
38% - Conservatives
16% - Liberal Democrats

YouGov/Channel 4 News
40% - Labour
36% - Conservatives
13% - Liberal Democrats

Populus/The Times
39% - Labour
36% - Conservatives
15% - Liberal Democrats

All of which, I think we can safely conclude, makes an early election much less likely.