GUEST POST Reform are still gaining councillors and Labour and the Tories are still losing them

The latest Defections Update from Augustus Carp provides a corrective to the view that Reform are falling apart in local government.

Now it is autumn, and the falling fruit,
And the long journey to oblivion….
D.H. Lawrence

The Seer of Eastwood probably didn’t have local government defections in mind when he wrote The Ship of Death, so it falls to us to consider these mysteries on his behalf. 

The toll continues, mercilessly. Since early September, a further 227 elected councillors have decided that they will be better able to serve their wards, or advance their careers, or sleep more easily in their beds, if they leave the party that supported them when they were elected. Their reasons for doing so may be many and various, but the consequences are similarly disturbing.

As has been noted before, defections by sitting councillors probably tell us more about local politics, and the health of local parties, than council by elections. Of course, personalities play a large part in this, and some people seem to be impossible to accommodate within any of the existing party disciplines. Nevertheless, when these people resign, defect, or flounce out, it is indicative of problems in the local party that may run deeper than appears on the surface.

For example, a number of Labour defections – particularly in London – are occurring now, in the run-up to candidate selection for the all-up Borough elections next year. Serving councillors are not being reselected, for whatever reason, and so are serving out their time as Independent councillors. 

Whether they decide to seek re-election has yet to be determined, but in any event they have deprived the party of canvassing time, campaigning ability and local knowledge. Their friends and family might also stop delivering leaflets and sitting outside polling stations – time will tell. 

If they do stand for re-election as Independents, they might take a significant number of personal votes with them, and can probably be guaranteed to slag off their old party, much to the mirth and merriment of the local press and the other candidates.

The little coverage this topic receives in the mainstream media tends to be used to reinforce today’s bigger political narrative, i.e. that lots of Conservative councillors are leaving, and as a consequence Reform UK is on the rise. As ever with political analysis, it seems to be a bit more complicated than that. For one thing, the Conservatives have not lost as many councillors as Labour recently.

Since September, a net total of 57 councillors have left the Conservative party, compared with 75 from the Labour Party. The Lib Dems are unchanged, the Greens have gained 13, and the Nationalists have lost 3. Reform UK have gained 34 councillors, and the balance have become Independent, non-aligned etc.

As usual, there are very few straight swaps between Party A and Party B. The process seems to be to leave Party A, become non-aligned or independent, and then see the light and join Party B. The duration of these moves can be extensive.

Clearly, in the current political climate, most direct party-to-party defections involve Reform UK - of the direct changes between parties, 32 Conservatives have moved to Reform UK, with one going in the opposite direction. One Lib Dem and one Labour councillor have both made the same move. 

Nine Labour Councillors have become Greens, and one has gone to Reform UK. Other Labour defections (included in the Independent category for now) have expressed their intention to join Your Party in due course – the Labour defectors seem to be going in many more different directions than Tory defectors.

Activists are (or at least should be) getting ready for the May 2027 elections now – the selection, reselection and deselection processes in all parties might persuade many more councillors to defect before then.

Augustus Carp is the pen name of someone who has been a member of the Liberal Party and then the Liberal Democrats since 1976.