Friday, September 15, 2023

If we really are seeing a Lib Dem revival, what would a good general election result look like?

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Writing for The House, Sean Kemp gives an amusing account of recent Liberal Democrat history:

At one point as a party spinner I found myself trudging round the lobby explaining our performance in the South Shields by-election (seventh place, behind the BNP and edging out the Monster Raving Loonies by 150 votes) and was reduced to gags like “we always said it was a seven horse race” to preserve some dignity.

before daring to hope that we are seeing a secure revival in the party's fortunes.

If we are really are, what would be a good result for the Lib Dems at next year's general election?

Sean writes:

Ed Davey isn’t about to be making up all the ground lost in the 2015 wipeout, but one of the many indignities of that result was the SNP becoming the third largest party in Westminster, taking over all the advantages that position gives you. 

It may be too much of a reach for the Lib Dems to turn it around at the next election, but if they come out of it having narrowed the gap and with a block of MPs that hold some legislative influence then the party can feel it is finally on an upward trajectory.

That is a realistic take, and it also emphasises that the Lib Dems' future will be strongly influenced by
something - the battle between the SNP and Labour in Scotland - that is wholly outside our control.

2 comments:

nigel hunter said...

What is in our control is the ability to get the under 30s to vote for us .After the betraying of them in the past re student fees for one.They are the future and I do not see why we should not make the effort to get them back.That helped us get the MPs we did for 2010.That sort of betrayal must not happen again.THEY ARE THE FUTURE.

Matt Pennell said...

I didn't really care for Sean Kemp's piece. He asks an important question which he doesn't answer. Furthermore he introduces drama and jeopardy into the situation - the swash and backwash of seats in Scotland's Central Belt - which we Lib Dems can do little about, other than defend two seats and win one.

We need to concentrate on our own game - winning a maximum number of seats across Southern England, and it is up to party strategists to work out what they can offer to party members in Wales and in England North of the Wash - Severn line.

What would be a good result? Winning 30 seats or more. If that happened we'd get more members, more donors and far more media exposure. Our MPs would be far less stretched across multiple policy briefs too. All of this makes a difference that Joe Public would notice - not being the 3rd party at Westminster quite frankly does not matter in the real world.