Wednesday, May 15, 2024

How the Lib Dems will stand in the Commons after the election is not in our hands

It would mean a lot to the Liberal Democrats to be the third party in the Commons. again. Our leader would get two questions at every PMQs: our spokespeople would get called more and earlier in debates. And all that would mean more media coverage and more clips on social media.

But there's no likely Lib Dem performance at the next election which would leave the reclaiming of this status entirely in our hands.

Have a look at this opinion poll and the resultant forecast of how many seats each party will win by Stats for Lefties.

I enjoy these forecasts of a Tory wipe out, but I don't take them too seriously. Besides, what interests me here are the Lib Dem and SNP totals.

A total of 38 Lib Dem MPs feels like a realistic idea of what a good election will look like for the Lib Dems. But note that we would only be the third party in the Commons because Labour had taken seats of the SNP in Scotland.

So just how things will stand for us at Westminster after the election is, to a significant degree, our of our comtrol.

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