Thanks to Dr Jenn Dowd for spelling it out so clearly:
I’ve heard *so* many versions of this claim over the years, including recently from a prominent menopause doctor/influencer (implying that menopause is not “natural” because no one lived long enough to go through it). Every time someone states this “fact,” a demographer loses a piece of their soul.
What’s the truth?
When life expectancy was in the 30s, you were more likely to die in your 70s than in your 30s.
Why?
- Life expectancy is an average
- Mortality under age 5 was extremely high historically
- If you survived to age 5 your chances of living to old age were decent.
I’m sure if you think about this for a minute it this will be obvious. But a picture is worth a thousand words...
Go to the full post for graphs that make the truth clear.
Some years ago, I found that the 17th century parish registers of the little village of Renhold, Bedfordshire, allowed me to match a lot of burial entries to the corresponding (assumed infant) baptisms. And provided that you didn't die in infancy (which a lot of people did of course), you did indeed stand a very good chance of living to 80 or so.
ReplyDeleteThe mild irony is that the expression "Three score and ten are the years of a man" originates with a 16th century Bible translator from Renhold.