But The Scotsman suggests the situation may not be so simple:
In my experience second preferences rarely make such a difference, particularly in elections with so few stages. But let's go on with the gossip:
Insiders say it is unlikely any of the candidates will get the 50 per cent of votes needed to win on the first count, which means the person with the fewest votes will drop out and his supporters' second preferences will prove crucial. The Finnie and Rumbles camps say there is still the possibility of a surprise outcome.
One source says: "If it had just been Mike against Tavish, it would have been the same result as last time – but Ross entering the race turned it into a real three-way competition."
Oh yes, and Ross Finnie is known as "Captain Mainwaring" because of his resemblance to the Dad's Army character.
Sources say Mr Scott was less than pleased when he discovered Mr Finnie was standing against him. Mr Finnie is the Lib Dems' most senior ex-minister, having served in Cabinet for the full eight years of the Labour-Lib Dem coalition, and in the same post, where he won praise for his handling of Scotland's foot-and-mouth outbreak.
Mr Finnie's campaign theme has been the importance of traditional Liberal values of individual freedom and civil liberties.