Tuesday, February 07, 2006

A two-horse race?

Guido Fawkes is claiming that YouGuv was commissioned to conduct a poll of Liberal Democrat members and the results came up: Campbell 40, Huhne 34, Hughes 24.

He also claims that these results have not been in the media because they were not to the taste of whoever paid for the poll.

As Quaequam! says, "if true this is nothing but good news for Our Chris".

Later. politicalbetting.com has the story too:

My informant tells me that the survey was commissioned by a wealthy backer of Ming Campbell who is also a big donor and he told me his name.

I was given the figures of Campbell 40%: Huhne 34% and Hughes 24% on first preferences. My information is that while the Hughes second preferences would split in Huhne’s favour they do not split enough for him to win.


Paul Leake said...

Would such a poll necessarily be accurate given Chris' comparative strength online and yougov's polling methods?

James Graham (Quaequam Blog!) said...

People always say that (including me), but there's no denying that YouGov have consistently been more accurate than other pollsters.

Anonymous said...

Things point to Paul Marshall of Orange Book fame then?

Aidan said...

If it is true then it's excellent news for Chris - his campaign continues to be the one with the greatest (if, in fact, the only one) momentum.

Richard Gadsden said...

Specific and unequivocal denial from Peter Kellner on politicalbetting.com

Anonymous said...

Were you the blogger4Chris that faked YouGov figures on the politicalbetting and Guido blogs to try and give him a false impression of momentum?

Jonathan Calder said...

Earlier in the campaign I was accused of spinning on behalf of Ming Campbell. At least then the person involved had the courtesy and courage to sign his name and the decency to apologise afterwards.

As to your comically loaded question, I have no reason to believe that any blogger4Chris has been involved in passing false figures to these sites.

Anonymous said...

Let's hope the thumping win in Dunfermiline shows that the party can elect Simon Hughes with no fear of being in the doldrums, as it is clear that any hangover from the events of the past few weeks is over already.

IMHO, various polling methods make any result of any research highly questionable, and anyway, this is a highly volatile election. One candidate may have "mo" one week, and another the next.