Peter Kellner sets last night's result in the Holborn & St Pancras by-election in its historical context:
Only three times in the party’s history has a Labour government been able to cheer a by-election night as a boost to its prospects of remaining in office.
The first was retaining Kingston-upon-Hull North in January 1966, ahead of its big national victory two months later. The second was four months ago, when Andy Burnham won Makerfield (though some ministers were happier than others).
Sagal Abdi-Wali has not just defeated the Greens in a local by-election. She has defied history. Four weeks ago, I argued that Holborn & St Pancras was a contest Zack Polanski should win.
Going back more than half a century, Labour has a truly dreadful record defending its own seats when it is government and faces a by-election challenge from the left or centre-left. The average swing against Labour in such contests was 24 per cent.
On those figures, Polanski should have won at a canter.
And later he writes:
It was no mean achievement for Labour’s Abdi-Wali. Her share of the vote was down just 3.7 points on the general election.
This was the tenth time that Labour has had to defend a seat when it has been in government and the main by-election challenge has come not from the right but from either the Liberal Democrats or the Greens. Abdi-Wali has retained a higher share of the vote than any of her predecessors.
Only Virendra Sharma, in 2007, came anywhere near, and he won Southall during Gordon Brown’s honeymoon as a new prime minister.
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