Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Britain Votes looks at Leicester South and Harborough

The election prediction blog has been looking at Leicestershire today. Two quotations of particular interest to Liberal Democrats:
It’s a shame that Peter Soulsby will surely be too busy campaigning to read this blog, which suggests he should just put up his feet and concede defeat in Leicester South. Although he remains relatively untarnished from the expenses debacle, 35% of this seat are Students and Graduates (2001 Census data). Parmjit Singh Gill, the Lib Dem PPC must tap into these to ensure victory, and that I don’t end up eating some strange metaphorical hat.
Tory incumbent MP Edward Garnier is just within reach of Lib Dem PPC Zuffar Haq. Around 25% of the population in this constituency are either full time students or graduates (2001 Census data). If turnout among the 18-25 year-olds rises significantly and the ‘Cleggmania’ holds around 28-30% then an upset is possible here. Harborough can be seen as a litmus test for the Lib Dem election campaign. If they manage to take this seat, then they will certainly be converting their national share into seats at a more efficient rate than in the past. Basically if they take this seat it’s likely they’ll have 100+ seats on May 7th.

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