Andrew Bridgen: "The MP for North West Bullshitshire"

I wasn't allowed to call Andrew Bridgen the MP for North West Bullshitshire in the paper. But I can here...https://t.co/vZ88VB5qR6 pic.twitter.com/d99t26WIP4

— Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) November 17, 2018

Matt Chorley's article is behind The Times paywall, but I can add further evidence to support his case out here in the open.

In July 2016, during the Conservative leadership election, Andrew Bridgen appeared on the East Midlands segment of the BBC's Sunday Politics.

He was there to support Andrea Leadsom's candidacy - this was before she gave her first major interview and torpedoed her own campaign.

As I blogged at the time:

When the interviewer Marie Ashby put him to him that, according to the Sunday Times, some East Midlands Tory MPs were threatening to leave the party if Leadsom won the contest Bridgen replied:

"If Theresa May ends up leading the party I think you'll have as many people falling off the other side of the party."

Theresa May, of course, won the leadership by dint of being the only candidate left standing. And not a single Conservative MP left the party.

The MP for North West Bullshitshire had struck again.

Liberal Democrats call on the leadership of Northamptonshire County Council to resign

For the second time in a year, a section 114 notice has been issued by the chief financial officer of Northamptonshire County Council. It is a Conservatice-run authority led by Cllr Matt Golby.

As I explained when the first notice was issued in February, this is a measure the officer takes if a council has, or is likely to have, an unbalanced budget.

Commenting today the leader of the Liberal Democrat group on the council, Chris Stanbra said:

"Matt Golby now needs to consider his position, as do cabinet members Cllr Michael Clarke and Cllr Ian Morris. Cllr Golby was deputy leader before and has been in the cabinet for many years. Cllr Clarke and Cllr Morris were also in the cabinet and so would have been involved in making these decisions. 

“They need to seriously think about whether they should step down in light of the current situation the council is in. If they don’t, they need to be ready to explain why it is that they should stay, as they bear a responsibility in this."

The Labour chair of the council's scrutiny committee said much the same:

"Clearly Matt Golby was a leading part of the cabinet and knew what was going on. 

"Those responsible now need to be held accountable. In the opposition we knew there were huge financial problems but we did not know a lot of the detail as it was hidden from us."

According to another Northamptonshire Telegraph report, Mr Golby

said he was disappointed that opposition politicians had called for him to step down.

But he added magnanimously:

"I am OK with taking responsibility for my involvement in the past."

Every local authority is under dreadful financial pressure, but the problems in Northants are an order of magnitude greater than any that have been revealed elsewhere.

Why is this? Let me try a theory on you.

Northamptonshire is the heart of Conservative Brexit country. Just think of the MPs the party selects: Angela Leadsom, Chris Heaton Harris, Peter Bone, Philip Hollobone, Tom Pursglove...

I think it fair to say they are more remarkable for their ideology than their intellect.

Local Conservative branches used to be filled with people who know how many beans make five. I suspect that in Northamptonshire at least, they have been replaced by ideologues who would could not read a spreadsheet to save their lives.

And those are the people from whom Northamptonshire Conservatives choose their council candidates. Those are the people who get to make that choice.

Northamptonshire's Conservative MPs turn on Northamptonshire's Conservative council

On Friday the Conservative-run Northamptonshire County Council brought in emergency controls on spending to avoid breaking the law by setting a budget where income does not cover expenditure.

Today the county's seven MPs - all of them Conservatives - issued a statement saying they had lost confidence in the council's leadership.

The MPs are Michael Ellis (Northampton North), Andrew Lewer (Northampton South), Chris Heaton-Harris (Daventry), Andrea Leadsom (South Northamptonshire), Philip Hollobone (Kettering), Peter Bone (Wellingborough) and Tom Pursglove (Corby).

The Northamptonshire Telegraph has the full text of the statement, part of which runs:

We also knew from backbench County Councillors that very little information of any use was being giving to them and they were undermined by the County Council’s Cabinet when trying to scrutinise decisions. 

We completely understand that position, as we were in a similar one. Indeed, we had concerns that if the leadership of the Council were giving central government the same information they were giving us as MPs and backbench County Councillors, then a completely incorrect picture of the County Council’s finances would be being passed on, which in turn would undermine any legitimate ask for fairer funding.

How fair this is may be revealed by the investigation of the authority announced by Sajid Javid.

But people have been saying today that Northamptonshire will not be the last authority to find itself in such trouble. And there have been rumours at Westminster of a rebellion by rural Tories over the settlements given to their local authorities.

It did not get the same publicity as tuition fees, but I fear the Coalition's decision to impose savage cuts on local authority spending marked the greatest break with what people thought they were supporting when they voted Liberal Democrat.

Alistair Carmichael: "Liam Fox is acting like a tinpot dictator"

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Andrea Leadsom demanded that BBC journalists should be "patriotic" - which in her mind consisted in telling everyone how well the negotiations with the European Union are going.

Now Liam Fox has written to  the BBC’s director general complaining that the corporation consistently runs negative stories about the economic effects of Brexit and demanding a meeting.

The Guardian report quotes someone giving the right response:

The Lib Dem chief whip, Alistair Carmichael, called the letter “a blatant attempt at intimidating the BBC and undermining the independence of our media”. 

“The BBC shouldn’t be bullied into publishing government propaganda and has rightly stood its ground,” Carmichael said. “Liam Fox is acting like a tinpot dictator. He can’t blame the media for his inability to deliver on all the trade deals promised by the Brexiteers.”

At the back of all this nonsense lies the fact that the Conservative Party is no longer Conservative.

Far from taking pride in British institutions - the National Health Service, our schools and universities, the BBC - they despise them.

All must be punished by continuous reform, with the inspiration coming from abroad - usually the USA (though other models are available).

There is something unpatriotic about the whole enterprise.

But then it was also unpatriotic of Theresa May to allow Liam Fox back into the cabinet after he was forced to resign the first time around for putting people at physical risk by breaching the ministerial code.

Nick Clegg rejoins the Liberal Democrat front bench

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On 10 July I blogged about the Conservative leadership:

For her sake and the sake of the country, Leadsom should now stand down from the contest.

The following day she did just that.

Sometimes it takes a little longer. On 7 July I wrote:

What would be welcome ... would be Nick Clegg taking on the Europe and foreign affairs for the Liberal Democrats, 

His party needs him and his country does too.

This afternoon came news (so far only via Twitter) that Nick Clegg is going to take on the European portfolio for the Lib Dems.

To be honest, I have been calling for him to do that ever since the last election. But if people have finally started to take notice of me I shall call for more things in future.

An early general election looks the logical choice for Theresa May

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A major Whitehall reorganisation.

Accomplished plotters like George Osborne and Michael Gove sent to the backbenches.

Potential disasters like Boris Johnson and Liam Fox brought in.

Others  - Andrea Leadsom, Priti Patel - given cabinet positions they will hate.

You cannot accuse Theresa May of lacking ambition, with Brexit on the books and a likely economic downturn on the way, it all sounds too much for a prime minister with a majority of only 12.

The logic of that, I suppose, is that we should expect a general election in the autumn or the spring of next year.

Without it, Theresa May may find she has overestimated the strength of her position.

Leicestershire Tory MP forecasts 20 defections if Theresa May becomes leader

Let's be honest: the East Midlands regional section is not always the most interesting part of Sunday Politics.

But it was certainly worth watching yesterday.

Andrew Bridgen, the Conservative MP for North West Leicestershire, was defending Andrea Leadsom and her bid to lead the party.

When the interviewer Marie Ashby put him to him that, according to the Sunday Times, some East Midlands Tory MPs were threatening to leave the party if Leadsom won the contest Bridgen replied:

"If Theresa May ends up leading the party I think you'll have as many people falling off the other side of the party."

You can see the exchange from 42:36 if you watch it on iPlayer.

Remember that the Sunday Times claimed as many as 20 Tory MPs were prepared to leave the party if Leadsom won.

Andrea Leadsom decides to apologise and play the victim

Truly appalling and the exact opposite of what I said.  I am disgusted. https://t.co/DPFzjNmKie

— Andrea Leadsom MP (@andrealeadsom) July 8, 2016

Remember this and Andrea Leadsom's other tweets on the theme?

All that has changed.

Helped by a comically one-sided article in the Telegraph by my former classmate Allison Pearson, Leadsom has decided to apologise and play the victim.:

When I ask if she would like to apologise to Mrs May, she says: "I've already said to Theresa how very sorry I am for any hurt I have caused and how that article said completely the opposite of what I said and believe." 

She refuses to say how the message was conveyed to the Home Secretary, but she admits she has felt “under attack, under enormous pressure. It has been shattering.”

Given that we have all read and heard what Leadsom said, you have to wonder how the apology was received.

And if a week in the public gaze has been "shattering," you have to wonder whether Leadsom is remotely suitable for the role of prime minister.

Reading between the lines, it sounds as though Leadsom originally stood to make herself better known, assuming that Boris Johnson would emerge as the Leave candidate.

Suddenly, Johnson and Gove took one another out and she found herself one of the final two candidates.

For her sake and the sake of the country, Leadsom should now stand down from the contest.

Andrea Leadsom campaign manager's childlessness jibe against Sarah Teather

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Tim Loughton is Andrea Leadsom's campaign manager.

In September 2013 the Telegraph quoted a speech of his to Conservative activists:

"The person who was actually in charge of family policy amongst the ministerial team at the DfE was Sarah Teather. Which was a bit difficult because she didn't really believe in family. 

"She certainly didn't produce one of her own. So it became a bit of a family-free zone. I think that was a huge disappointment."

Loughton later told the BBC that he would apologise to Teather.

Jo Swinson had it right in her quote in the Telegraph story:

"Using someone’s lack of children as an insult is shameful, crass and, frankly, disgusting. It reflects far more on him than on Sarah."

All in all, a remarkable coincidence.

Nobody knows anything about British politics any more

"Nobody knows anything." That's what the screenwriter William Goldman said.

He went on to explain:

Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what's going to work. Every time out it's a guess and, if you're lucky, an educated one.

And it's certainly true of British politics now too.

Take what I wrote on Sunday:

There will be no coronation for the new Conservative leader. Two names will be put to the party's leadership. Those names will be Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom. 

May will win the ballot, but it will be no walkover - say 56 to 44 per cent.

Aww. How sweet! I love the exact percentage figures.

Everything I have seen since I wrote that had led me to believe that the Conservative members will choose Andrea Leadsom.

There are a lot of fruitcakes among them and they want a fruitcake to lead them.

It's not just me. The current Private Eye has two columns of quotes from pundits telling us that Remain would win the referendum or that Boris Johnson would be our new prime minister.

And who could forget our own Nick Tyrone? At the start of May her drew on his own experience of the Yes campaign in the AV referendum:

Twenty days out from the AV referendum vote, the polls had Yes and No neck in neck, a knife’s edge finish supposedly clearly ahead. But saner heads knew, even on the Yes campaign at that exact moment, what was coming. I recall clearly when that poll was discussed in the Yes to AV campaign HQ: the younger, inexperienced members of staff figured we were in with a real chance; the older, more experienced members knew it was all over. I remember one of them saying to me – “It’ll be about 65-35 No, for sure”. Remarkably spot on in retrospect. 

Most of the wiser heads on Yes to AV didn’t need the polls to tell them we were headed for a hiding anyhow. When every cogent voice in Westminster says something is a bad idea, while every lunatic comes out of the woodwork to support your cause, in a 50-50 plebiscite it is only going to go one way. And sure enough, it did. 

So if I’m sure we’ll be seeing a repeat of history in short order, when will the polls actually turn? We’re only seven a half weeks out, so probably not for a bit. They’ll probably go definitely Remain’s way about two weeks to ten days out, so sometime between June 9th and June 13th.

If the fact that nobody knows anything about British politics any more has an upside it is that we will hear less of people promising to run naked down Whitehall if their predictions turn out to be wrong. Call it danhodgesism.

And there is a serious point to all this. In April I wrote:

That party membership is such a minority taste now suggests that the 19th-century model of political parties we still embrace is hopelessly outdated. 

Yet no politician has the vision or overweening ambition to wrench it apart and allowing something more attuned to our needs today to take its place.

Party membership is growing again, so I was wrong about that. But maybe the tectonic plates really are moving.

Already, Remain and Leave across the UK, and Yes and No in Scotland, seem more vital and more coherent identities than the old party labels.

But I am probably wrong - and I am not sure about that "overweening".

Now questions are raised about edits to Andrea Leadsom's Wikipedia entry

The grandstand at Towcester racecourse ©  Oliver Hunter

Yesterday evening I blogged about the questions being raised over Andrea Leadsom's claims about her career.

Now the Guardian is claiming that suspicious edits have been made to her Wikipedia profile:

Andrea Leadsom faces questions over her Wikipedia entry after it emerged that embarrassing media stories had been removed from the page. The changes appear to have been made from Towcester, where the Conservative leadership contender’s constituency office is located. 

In 2015, references to media reports about the Leadsom family’s use of trusts to own a buy-to-let company and details of financial donations from Leadsom’s brother-in-law, Peter de Putron, were deleted from Leadsom’s profile on the website. 

The changes were made by an unregistered user, with an IP address in Towcester, which is in Leadsom’s constituency of South Northamptonshire. Penny Mordaunt defends Leadsom Tory leadership bid. 

The deletion was accompanied by a note stating: “The allegations by Private Eye, the Guardian and the Independent are false and designed to be politically damaging. No laws have been broken and Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs can confirm that Mrs Leadsom’s tax status is perfectly legal.”

Reader's voice: I am surprised you are bothering to blog about this.

Liberal England replies: I wasn't going to, but I have this comment to hand...

Lord Bonkers writes exclusively for Liberal England:

"Towcester is a fascinating place. You never know who will pop up next."

Was Andrea Leadsom really a City high-flyer?

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When leadership candidates appear from almost nowhere, it is often an idea to cast a sceptical eye over their CVs.

Iain Duncan Smith, for instance, originally claimed that he had attended the University of Perugia in Italy. A Newsnight investigation revealed that this was a considerable exaggeration.

Now some people are questioning the picture that Andrea Leadsom has allowed to be painted of herself. Was she really a City high-flyer before she turned to politics?

Robert Stephens politely suggests she was not:

Her job at Barclays/BZW 1993-1997 was a largely administrative one, “Financial Institutions Director” meaning the maintenance of contractual relationships with other banks. 

Her job as Managing Director of De Putron Fund Management,1997-1999 seems to have involved setting up the onshore shell of her brother-in-law’s offshore investment company. 

But her job at Perpetual/Invesco Perpetual, 1999-2009, is particularly worthy of closer inspection. I was a fellow employee throughout her time there. Last week, at my prompting, she corrected her CV with Wikipedia and Who’s Who, changing her title from the obviously incorrect Chief Investment Officer to the titles of Senior Investment Officer and Head of Corporate Governance. 

Her actual job was to work (sometimes part-time) on "special projects", mostly for the Chief Investment Officer. These included for example negotiating pay terms for senior fund managers. Towards the end of her time, she advised on a couple of governance issues. 

As I understand it she had no-one reporting to her in either role, so the words Senior and Head are, one might say, superfluous.

The coming civil war in the Conservative Party

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No one but a fool would try to forecast political events in Britain at the moment, so I am willing to give it a go.

There will be no coronation for the new Conservative leader. Two names will be put to the party's leadership. Those names will be Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom.

May will win the ballot, but it will be no walkover - say 56 to 44 per cent.

That will not be the end to the Tories' troubles but the start of them.

Because they have no clear vision of what Brexit will be like, the Leavers are bound to be disappointed.

Britain's bosses will not suddenly grasp opportunities to trade with the world and bring in a new era of prosperity. If they were minded to do that, there was nothing about British membership of the European Union that stopped them.

Errand boys are unlikely to start whistling in the street again either.

And if the Leavers are disappointed they will conclude their referendum has been betrayed and look for scapegoats.

Chief among them will be the leader of their party. Theresa May, they will rage, was a Remainer. How can they ever trust her?

Arron Banks, the sugar daddy of Ukip, claimed on Twitter this morning that the Leave.eu campaign he funded is followed by more than 20 per cent of the Tory membership.

Certainly, from the limited sample of Conservative activists I follow on Twitter, I get the impression that the party's grassroots are closer to Nigel Farage than they are to Cameron or May.

It was notable this morning that Leadsom refused to rule out having Farage on her Brexit negotiating team. She know what her potential supporters want.

So what I see is Theresa May as leader of a party where a large proportion of the membership increasingly regard her as a traitor and owe semi-allegiance to a grouping that overlaps with the party.

For a model of how this works, have a look at the Labour Party and Momentum.

In the words of Leonard Cohen: "I have seen the future, brother, and it is murder."