The myth that Labour's tax policies lost them the 1992 election

Why did John Major win the 1992 election when most pundits expected Neil Kinnock's Labour Party to be the victors?

Immediately after the contest, a consensus developed that the reason was the effectiveness of the Conservatives' campaign against Labour's economic policies. This view was certainly advanced by the Tories themselves, as its acceptance would make Labour more timid about challenging Thatcherite economics in future. 

And it was advanced by the head of the Tory campaign, Chris Patten, perhaps as a way of burnishing his reputation and consoling himself after he lost his own seat of Bath to the Liberal Democrats.

But I have always doubted this explanation. I remember thinking that it did not chime with what I had heard during the campaign from voters or from colleagues at work.

I recently came across an article that suggests I was right to be sceptical. In May 1994 the Independent published an article by Anthony Heath, Roger Jowell and John Curtice on the findings of their study of the 1992 election.

They go through the various explanations that had been offered for Labour's defeat and find them all wanting – notably the claim that "It's The Sun Wot Won It" made by, you guessed it, The Sun itself.

Here are Heath et al. on the suggestion that it was Labour's tax policies that had been decisive:

Labour's proposals for taxation and national insurance contributions – outlined in John Smith's 'alternative Budget' – were relentlessly attacked by the Conservatives. Faced with the prospect of a cut in their disposable income, the argument runs, voters had second thoughts about the wisdom of letting Labour in.

But our surveys find little evidence to back this argument. It arose because the polls showed a small Labour lead throughout a campaign in which taxation was one of the dominant issues and yet the Tories won. Our research, however, confirms that the pollsters had it wrong all along: they consistently underestimated the Tory vote. The Conservatives were ahead throughout the campaign. 

There was a late swing, but far too small to account for Labour's defeat. And the people who deserted Labour were not particularly averse to high taxation; rather, they seemed to have relatively little faith in Labour's ability to improve services such as health and education.

In fact, the authors find nothing in the 1992 election campaign had much of an effect on the final outcome.

I did receive intimations that there had been a late swing to the Tories. During the campaign, I'd heard stories of Liberal Democrat workers putting money on Nick Harvey gaining North Devon with a large majority, when ultimately he gained it with a small one. 

And I was told to put money on the Lib Dems in Falmouth and Camborne, because Sebastian Coe was going down very badly there. Luckily I didn't, because Coe held the seat for the Tories. He lost to Labour in 1997 and the Lib Dems finally took it in 2005.

My own theory was that voters had chosen John Major over Neil Kinnock. After Margaret Thatcher's late Sturm und Drang years, Major was a breath of fresh air. Those who only know of him as a figure of fun may be surprised at this, but if they study his statesmanlike conduct since losing power they may see why people found him attractive in 1992.

Neil Kinnock, by contrast, had been leader of the opposition for nine years. Some of the attacks on him as a "Welsh windbag" bordered on the racist, but, boy, he did talk a lot. And, burdened by cares of leadership, he had lost the wit and sparkle that had made his name as a backbench MP – notably on Jimmy Young's Radio 2 programme.

So that's why I didn't believe in 1992 that the Tories' attacks on Labour's tax policies had won them the election. And, going by Heath et al.'s study, I was right not to believe what became the received wisdom on that contest.

This question is not just of historical interest. Rachel Reeves's pledge not to increase income tax, national insurance or VAT, which has backed her into such a corner, was made because of a more or less conscious memory of 1992.

The effect on children when a parent loses a parliamentary election

Matthew Spender's book A House in St John's Wood is a portrait of his father, the poet Stephen Spender.

Stephen's father was Harold Spender and the Michael mentioned below is Stephen's brother Michael Spender. The third brother was Humphrey Spender – they were very much a family of Wikipedia entries.

Early in his book, Matthew Spender writes:

When Stephen was twelve, Harold stood as a Liberal candidate in a general election. My father remembered being hauled around Bath in a pony-carriage with his two brothers, each with a placard round his neck saying "Vote for Daddy". Harold lost and the effect on Michael and Stephen was traumatic.

Michael said: "When they are very young, the children of a public man worship their father for being famous – a kind of god: but it's extraordinary how soon they get to realise if he's a public failure." Michael developed a stammer. He decided that his father was "inefficient", which in eyes was the worst thing a man could be. 

Stephen, instead, just couldn't stop crying. It confirmed his suspicion that his father was a windbag whose exhortations of "on and ever on" were meaningless.

Love is Enough: Ed Davey sings in Bath on Saturday

From Somerset Live:

The Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey is to perform Top 40 Christmas hits with Bath Philharmonia Young Carers’ Choir at a live concert in Bath. The choir is performing their Top 40 hit ‘Love is Enough’ featuring Sir Ed this Saturday (December 14) at The Bath Forum.

The concert will include The Snowman on the big screen with a live orchestra, while the MP for Kingston and Surbiton will narrate ‘The Night Before Christmas’ and sing the chart song. 

Written by six young carers and former young carers, the song ‘Love is Enough’ is a tribute to the caring responsibilities of young carers and the bond they share with the people they care for.

Ed Davey is quoted in the story:

"It was a joy to spend time with this amazing group of young carers, to see their incredible talents, energy and love. With the wonderful Bath Philharmonia, they have created something that I'm sure will strike a chord not only with other young carers - often invisible in our communities - but also with all carers and families. I can’t wait to perform it live to audiences in Bath."

If you can't make it to Bath on Saturday, you can stream or download Love is Enough.

Beautiful footage of the Somerset and Dorset Joint Railway

The Somerset and Dorset Joint Railway is one of our most mourned lines. Jointly owned by the Midland and the London and South Western, it ran from Bath to Bournemouth

As well as carrying Somerset coal and agricultural produce, it brought holidaymakers to the South Coast. It's crack train was the Pines Express, which ran from Manchester to Bournemouth.

My mother worked for the police in Somerset before I was born. She used to say that their exercise to test their preparedness for a civil emergency imagined the wrecking of this train.

As you will see from this video, the line ran through some beautiful country.

The miraculous remains of the Somerset Coal Canal

The Somerset coalfield is forgotten now, but the last mine there did not close until 1973. And at the start of the 19th century a canal was dug to serve the industry there.

Running from the Kennet and Avon Canal at Limpley Stoke near Bath, the Somersetshire Coal Canal headed 10 miles south west to Paulton and Timsbury. A branch was built from Midford, near the northern end of the canal, to the mining town of Radstock, but this was soon replaced by a tramway.

Paul and Rebecca Whitewick visit the remains of the canal at Combe Hay, and what they find is stunning. The flight of locks there has been closed since the end of the 19th century, yet the masonry from which the lock chambers are constructed is in perfect condition.

So it's no surprise that restoration work is taking place along the length of the canal - see the webpage of the Somersetshire Coal Canal Society for details.

At the start of this video, Paul Whitewick points to the Camerton railway branch line. This is where much of The Titfield Thunderbolt was filmed, but you'll find no mention of coal traffic in the film.

There's more from Paul and Rebecca Whitewick about their railway and canal explorations on their website.

Nicola Horlick: Jo Swinson is in talks with lots of Labour and Conservative MPs

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Nicola Horlick, at one time Britain's best-know businesswoman and a Conservative, has just been adopted as the Liberal Democrat candidate for Chelsea and Fulham.

In an interview with the i newspaper she gives us a glimpse of what Jo Swinson is up to:

“A lot of MPs from both Labour and the Tories were talking to Jo Swinson about defecting, but the trouble is we’ve got all our candidates already.”

The answer seems to be for the existing Lib Dem candidate to stand down:

It does seem unfair that someone who has worked so hard at a local level to get to be our candidate may be moved aside for a more well known candidate. It really has to be their decision whether to step aside for a better known figure, someone who may have a better chance of winning the seat. 

“It comes down to whether or not an existing candidate is willing to be gracious and step aside in the interest of the party.”

The trouble is that, after the debacle (hem hem) of the last two elections, there are few winnable seats for the Lib Dems - even though we hope our emergence as England's only major Remain party has changed that.

And the other trouble is that high-profile defectors are rarely such vote-winners as they like to think.

I remember (though I have forgotten his name) that the existing Liberal candidate stepped aside to allow the Labour defector and former minister Chris Mayhew to fight Bath, which even then was a good Liberal prospect, in the February 1974 general election. Mayhew failed to win it.

Equally, everyone expected Bill Pitt to step aside in favour of Shirley Williams when a by-election was called in Croydon North West in 1981. But he insisted on being the Alliance candidate and won the by-election.

I suppose I should be outraged that defectors from both sides threaten to turn the Liberal Democrats into a centre party, but it is hard to be too dogmatic about a party that has so little ideology to begin with. And I am rather pleased that people now want to join us.

Instead, I am excited by the discovery, made in the course of writing this post, that Nicola Horlick's father Michael Gayford was a Liberal candidate.

He fought the Wirral constituency three times: at the two general elections of 1974 and the 1976 by-election caused by the resignation of Wirral's MP Selwyn Lloyd.

Lloyd was Speaker of the House of Commons between 1971 and 1976, which mean that in the two 1974 elections both the Liberals and Labour broke the convention that the Speaker should not be opposed.

Templecombe to Bath Green Park in 1963

This much-mourned line is seen three years before its closure.

Note the glimpse of a working Somerset coal mine.

Gumley is Leicestershire's Bishop's Castle

I have worked out why I like Gumley so much: it reminds me of Bishop's Castle in Shropshire.

Both settlements have a long main street that runs uphill to a building that is no longer there.

In Bishop's Castle it is the castle: in Gumley it is Gumley Hall.

When I was in Gumley on Saturday I noticed that a couple of the large houses on its only street were looking run down.

That is a shame, but it gives it something else in common with its Shropshire cousin.

One of the things I have always liked about Bishop's Castle is that it is not too perfect.

You will get a run of chocolate-box 18th-century houses and then there will be one patched up with corrugated iron. My mother says this is what Bath was like in the 1950s.

Another of the things I like about it is its pubs. And Gumley can complement that too.

In past years The Bell in Gumley has not seemed welcoming. It was always closed when you passed it and had signs up telling you all the things you couldn't do there. But on Saturday it was open, friendly and appeared to be thriving.

And there is one thing Gumley has that Bishop's Castle doesn't: a green telephone box.

Liberator on the fall of Tim Farron - and other party gossip

Lord Bonkers thinks it was a posse of peers that did for Tim Farron. Radical Bulletin in the new Liberator comes to a different conclusion:

It may be that translating his constituency and internal party campaigning talents to the national stage was simply beyond Farron's ability and eventually, rather to his credit, he realised this and resigned.

Elsewhere in Radical Bulletin you can read about the row over the Liberal Democrat selection in Bath, about problems with Connect and the targeting of seats the Lib Dems hoped to win and about an unhelpful intervention in Ceredigion by Great George Street.

If you want to know what is really going on in the party: subscribe to Liberator.

The Conservatives were short of workers in the general election

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As an acknowledged expert on politics in Bath, I was interested in the comments of the city's defeated Conservative MP Ben Howlett:

When the election was called, Howlett warned the chief whip Gavin Williamson that if the party were to win a bigger majority, it would need “the infrastructure in order to run the campaign on the ground in our key marginal constituencies . . . we don’t have the infrastructure. Labour’s polls were low, but they had the infrastructure, Momentum, going out there, knocking on doors constantly.” 

Indeed, there are stories about how Downing Street staffers had to do a desperate ring-around to try and recruit enough candidates, let alone activists, after Theresa May’s announcement in April. 

Howlett believes the party has been “neglecting” growing its membership. “I hope they’re going to wake up and smell the coffee . . . maybe an organisation outside of the Conservative Party might be a way of actually broadening out the populist appeal.”

They come in a New Statesman article by Anoosh Chakelian, which looks at Conservative members' calls for an equivalent force to Momentum.

She says that call is made up of three wishes:

The first is for a youth strategy that goes beyond “young people don’t vote”, as one young activist derisively describes it. 

The second is to compete with the manpower that Labour and its “standing army” of campaigners in Momentum has at its disposal. 

The third is a social media strategy that will make its messages go viral; videos like Momentum’s Tory broadcast spoof “Daddy, Why Do You Hate Me?” which was viewed more than 7.6 million times and reached 30 per cent of UK Facebook users.

Business Insider names nine MPs at risk of an anti-Brexit Lib Dem revival at the general election

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Writing for Business Insider, Adam Payne identifies nine sitting MPs who "have to fight hard to fend off the looming threat of the Liberal Democrats".

Here they are, with extracts from Payne's analysis of the contest in each constituency.

Cambridge: Daniel Zeichner (Labour) - "If Farron's Lib Dems do enjoy a revival at the ballot box in June then Cambridge is the most likely seat to fall in its hands."

Bermondsey and Old Southwark: Neil Coyle (Labour) - "One Labour source told us this week that Coyle is 'very worried' about the June contest."

Bristol West: Thangam Debbonaire (Labour) - "A massive 80% of voters here wanted to Remain in the EU, meaning Debbonaire's 17% majority over the Lib Dems might not be enough to keep her seat."

Cardiff Central: Jo Stevens (Labour) - "62% of voters are estimated to have backed Remain here and the Lib Dems will be hungry to regain another seat it lost in 2015."

Vauxhall: Kate Hoey (Labour) - "It'd be an incredible achievement for Farron's party to win the seat it has never held... but don't rule it out."

Lewes: Maria Caulfield (Conservative) - "With 50% of voters here estimated to have backed Remain all it would take is a small swing to the Lib Dems for candidate Kelly-Marie Blundell to get elected to the Commons in June."

Kingston and Surbiton: James Berry (Conservative) - "With a Tory majority as small as 8% Farron will regard the Greater London seat as very winnable."

Bath: Ben Howlett (Conservative) - "Tory MP Howlett campaigned for Britain to stay in the EU but with 66% of voters estimated have backed Remain his position is definitely at risk of a resurgent Lib Dem vote."

Cheadle: Mary Robinson (Conservative) - "With 58% of voters estimated to have backed Remain in the June referendum, we can expect a significant swing in favour of Farron's revitalised party."

All very upbeat about Lib Dem chances, though we shall have to raise our profile on issues other than Europe as the campaign develops if we want a good night on 8 June.

Incidentally, I seem to have got into the habit of using old railway posters to illustrate post about seats where the Lib Dems may be in with a chance at the general election.

If I start talking up our chances in unlikely places, it may be because I have found an attractive poster I want to use.