Monday, April 30, 2018

CityMetric’s guide to the 2018 London borough elections

Jonn Elledge has produced a thorough guide to this week's London borough elections, dividing the contests into the really interesting ones, the slightly interesting ones and the frankly pretty boring ones.

His overall prediction?
My instinct is that the Tories are going to get battered, but that some of the more excitable predictions of Conservative losses are unlikely to be delivered on.
He also Labour has failed to manage expectations. As a result, if it does not win Westminster (a borough it has never controlled) it will look like failure.

Of the three borough where the Liberal Democrats have hopes of maintaining or taking control, he writes:
Kingston gives the Lib Dems a genuine chance of adding a borough to their tally in London. Even if that doesn’t happen, it seems probably the Tories will lose control.
Anger about Brexit could cause the Tories problems here [Richmond upon Thames], again. This could be a Lib Dem gain.
In 2014, the yellows won 45 seats to the Tories’ nine [in Sutton]. The latter are said to have their eye on the borough, but – at risk of tempting fate – It doesn’t look terribly likely.
 All very encouraging, but if it is to be a really good night for the Lib Dems we must also make modest advances in other boroughs across the capital.

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