Friday, December 30, 2022

Harborough's voters are getting younger

Britain has an ageing population. Manchester, for instance, has 4.3 per cent fewer people aged 18-34 than it had in 2011.

But this isn't true of every constituency. In a Twitter thread, Patrick English provides a list of the seats where voters are getting younger - what he calls "Benjamin Button" seats.

And nestled amongst them is Harborough, where there are 1.1 per cent more voters under 34 than in 2011.

In his thread, English quotes James Kanagasooriam as saying:

"Around 80-90 per cent of why certain seats vote for certain parties is explained by the demographics of the area."

Which may mean that the Conservatives will feel increasingly less comfortable in Harborough, particularly as the Boundary Commission surprised many by keeping the seat much as it is.

In 2005 Jill Hope for the Liberal Democrats came within less than 4000 votes of winning. Since 2015 Labour has held second place here, and it's hard to see either party emerging as the only challenger to the Tories at the next election.

But in the long term, the Conservatives will have increasing problems if Harborough's voters continue to get younger,

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