Monday, May 20, 2013

The Liberal Democrats won the Harborough constituency in the county elections

Lewis Baston has analysed this month's county elections results for the Fabian Society. He concludes that "these elections were not a vote of confidence in any party".

Because of the website it was written for it is chiefly concerned with the fortunes of the Labour Party, but it will still interest all politicos.

And I was particularly interested in this sentence:
The Lib Dems were ahead in some seats that were Tory in 2010, such as South East Cornwall, Oxford West & Abingdon, Winchester, St Albans, Watford and Harborough.
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JR said...

UKIP attracted a lot of support in these elections from the Tories, making the Lib Dem result look more respectable in some areas. That advantage won't be there at the 2015 General.

I'd be happy to have a very sizeable bet that the Lib Dems won't win Harborough or even come within a country mile - and I really can't see all those students in Oxwab voting for Clegg after the fees vote!

Jonathan Calder said...

No, the Harborough constituency has long been an area of local government strength for Liberals and Liberal Democrats. Wigston UDC was run by the Liberals back in Jo Grimond's day.

UKIP polled relatively poorly here and in any case seems to have taken votes from the Tories and Lib Dems more or less equally.

JR said...

I'm not sure about that.

UKIP got 24% in MH East, 23% in MH West and 24% in the 3 Wigston seats. Given that they had never put up a candidate before that is good going and represents votes taken from other parties (mainly the Tories?) The Lib Dem vote held up only where there were very well entrenched local councillors getting elected on a personal vote and spending a lot of money on their campaign (see NW Leics, Hinckley and Bosworth).

If you want a bet with me on the Libs winning Harborough next time I will willing take money off you! ;-)