Friday, January 20, 2017

Labour set to lose Copeland "by thousands of votes"

Ben Riley-Smith writes on the Daily Telegraph site this evening:
Jeremy Corbyn is set to become the first official opposition leader to lose a by-election to the Government in 35 years, according to the Labour Party’s own canvass returns. 
The Telegraph understands internal analysis of more than 10,000 conversations with voters in Copeland, the Cumbrian constituency, shows Labour’s support down by a third since 2015 ...
The returns suggest that the Tories will take Copeland – a seat held by Labour for 80 years – when voters pick their new MP next month.
He goes on to say:
Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties. 
"Jeremy's incompetence is constantly coming up on the doorstep. Nobody sees him as a party leader,” said a Labour source.
My suspicion is that the anti-Corbyn forces in Labour are talking up the prospect of defeat in Copeland in the hope that it will bring him down.

But then did Labour's new, Corbyn-supporting members join the party to win power?

t may have had more to do with identity politics. To them, if Corbyn loses it will just show how moral they are and how wicked everyone else is.

Incidentally, Riley-Smith says it is the Conservatives who will gain from Labour's collapse in Copeland.

He also says:
Early canvass returns from Stoke are understood to also show Labour’s support significantly down on 2015, though not nearly as many people have been consulted as Copeland.

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