Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Canterbury Lib Dems told to delay candidate selection

There's an intriguing story on Kent Online:
The selection of a Liberal Democrat candidate to contest the Canterbury seat at the next election has been unexpectedly put on hold. 
A selection meeting was scheduled to take place tomorrow, but has been postponed indefinitely. 
It is understood local association party chiefs were contacted this week by the national party and told to cancel the selection meeting but were given no explanation why. 
There is speculation the party has acted to keep some seats open in the event of further high-profile defections from other parties amid the Brexit chaos.
You have to be an optimist to see Canterbury as a Lib Dem candidate target. But politics is in such  flux at the moment, who knows?


Thanks to a reader for this...


William said...

May I have a go at making a case for Canterbury?

Lib Dems will conceivably be strong contenders in unlikely seats if viewed through the distorting lens of the 2017 results .

Such seats will have some common characteristics. They will have a strong LD vote in 2010 – the last time the Party fought elections at a similar rating in national opinion polls.

They will have evidence of a latent significant UKIP and Brexit Party (BP) level of support.

The voting across the constituency in the 2019 Euros will show strong support for the Party and for the BP.

Let’s look at the unlikely Canterbury where Labour made a surprising gain – polling 25572 votes to beat the Tory 25385. There was no UKIP candidate and of course the election pre-dated the formation of the BP.

Evidence for UKIP/BP strength comes in the 2015 result when UKIP polled 7289 (13.6%) and the Tories 22918 with Labour at ‘just’ 13120.

So what of the 2010 result, when the LDs were at similar levels of support to today? Con 22050 44%, LDs 16002 (32%) and Lab 7940 (16%).

Allow a moments speculation. At the time of the next General Election the UK has not left the EU. BP and Tories have not done a deal and Farage is in full campaigning mode. The Labour position communicated by Corbyn falls apart. The population have had enough of this Brexit malarkey and just want to get on with life.

Finally, let’s have a look at the Euro 2019 results for the constituency:
BP 37%
LDs 25.7%
Grn 14%
Lab 8.5%

Happy Days

Bill le Breton

Alex Macfie said...

Bill: Looks like a promising seat for us, but where were the Tories? Did you just miss them out, or did they really poll so low they weren't worth mentioning?

Phil Beesley said...

Film buffs may recall that in _A Canterbury Tale_ (Powell and Pressburger), Canterbury cathedral is represented by that of St Albans, definitely a LibDem target.

William said...

Good spot Alex . Almost ... they polled 7.9%