Huffington Post had gone behind the New World (formerly New European) paywall and emerged with a story about the level of public support for Brexit today:
Peter Kellner, who founded YouGov and sat as its president until 2016 – the year of the Brexit referendum – predicted that there’s most likely a majority of 8 million now in favour of rejoining the bloc.
And, because psephology is a heartless science, he said a lot more, beginning with the observation that more than six million Britons have died since 2016:
Considering the turnout among older voters was higher than average and that 64 per cent of over-65s backed Brexit, he said it is safe to assume 3.2 million pro-Leave voters have died in the last nine years, compared to 1.8 million Remainers.
Kellner said: "This means that among people who are alive today and who voted in the 2016 referendum, Remainers exceed Leavers by 14.3 to 14.2 million."
In addition, the pollster pointed out that the six million young people who have reached voting age since 2016 are more likely to be pro-EU.
Even if just three million of them were to actually vote in a future referendum, that would take the Remain majority to two million.
If you also take account of the Leave voters who have changed their minds since the referendum, then you arrive at Kelner's estimate of an 8 million majority for Remain today.
All of which means our government's policy on Europe is heavily influenced by a desire not to alienate dead people.
It also shows an interesting inability to comprehend the difference between FPTP and a referendum. So a possible / probably plurality in FPTP for a party/parties with an anti-immigrant policy is being assumed to indicate a majority against European reunion. But that does hold out the possibility that there are people who want to return to European union but continue to restrict immigration and free movement, from within it, and do not feel there is a dissonance here.
ReplyDeletePeople blandly talk about 'rejoining'. If the UK does decide to attempt to join the EU, it will be a completely new application and subject to the rules for new applicants. So, there are things we would have to accept, like the Euro, Schengen, free movement with none of the opt outs and rebates we enjoyed when we were members before. Peter Kelner may think there is now a majority for 'rejoining' but will there be once people realise what we will have to accept? I do hope so, but I fear we may never join the EU in my lifetime.
ReplyDeleteWe'd have to accept the Euro _de jure_, but, as the example of Sweden proves, _de facto_ it's optional.
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