Peter Knight on making sense of conspiracy theories

Professor Peter Knight gave this lecture on Making Sense of Conspiracy Theories at Gresham College, London, on 14 November 2024. You can download the full text, including academic references, from the college website: 

A common misconception is that belief in conspiracy theories is the result of a lack of accurate information or the circulation of mistaken information, whether accidental or deliberate. The assumption is that no one in their right mind would believe in such bizarre claims, unless they were the victims of a concerted campaign of deception and manipulation The idea is that people are fundamentally rational, and that they will adjust their beliefs when new evidence comes to life. And the implication is that if only we can transmit the correct information, then the mistaken belief will disappear.

But the reality in many cases is that misinformation doesn't turn people into conspiracy theorists. Instead, conspiracy theories often provide people with ready-made narrative justifications for identity positions they have already assumed. Although the usual picture of a conspiracy theorist is a loner, the process of developing conspiracy interpretations in online communities can give people a sense of community, purpose and belonging. Conspiracy theories need to be understood as collective, sensemaking narratives that help bolster worldviews, rather than as pieces of misleading information that alter individual beliefs.

More missing scientists: The GEC-Marconi deaths of the Eighties

The "disappearing scientists" panic sweeping the US has led to a rediscovery of a spoof television programme along similar lines that was broadcast in Britain in June 1977. It had originally been scheduled for 1 April.

And it has reminded me that there was similar concern here, 10 years after that broadcast, about a spate of deaths among GEC-Marconi scientists.

There are some not very good podcasts about it, but the video above is a contemporary news report of one shocking death that refers to several others. It's from Thames Television and dates from 1987, so the conspiracy theory had made the mainstream by then.

And here's a report from the Sunday Express (12 February 1989):

Bizarre case of 25 dead scientists 

Defence Secretary George Younger has denied there was anything sinister about the bizarre deaths of 25 British scientists over the past seven years. 

New evidence and fresh allegations of murder are revealed in a television programme, The Marconi Curse to be shown in Australia today. 

The programme, Sixty Minutes, says nine of the defence scientists to die mysteriously were connected with the electronics firm, Marconi. Relatives were assured that their bizarre deaths were either accidental or suicide. 

But Sixty Minutes asks: "Could they have been murdered?"

In his first public comment on the deaths Mr Younger told the programme: "If you've got thousands of people working on a project, quite a number of them are likely to die. I don't see anything sinister in that."

You can see what I think is the programme on YouTube. Be warned: there's a lot about suicide.

As is generally the way with such news stories, it just faded away after a time with no proof of the conspiracy or definitive refutation of it found. Remember those mystery drones that were assailing the US a couple of years ago?

I like the theory that there is a quantum amount of weirdness in the world, whether it's strange phenomena or bizarre coincidences. Study any topic closely enough and you will become aware of it. The closer you study the crowds in Daley Plaza when JFK was assassinated, for instance, the stranger they seem.

But this GEC-Marconi deathsepisode has shown me an unexpected bonus of growing older. Your memory improves – you remember a lot of things most other people don't.

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"When news of the arrests of the three Ukrainians broke, a rumour soon began to spread online that the alleged perpetrators were, in fact, Ukrainian male sex workers employed by Starmer and that the arson attack was revenge for unpaid bills. Perhaps unsurprisingly, one of the most influential online figures involved in spreading this 'Rent Boys' conspiracy theory was Stephen Lennon." Joe Mulhall and Nick Lowles argue that Tommy Robinson is Putin's useful idiot.

Theo Rodwell fears the Liberal Democrats are being held hostage by Conservatives who have lent them their votes.

"The mayor of New York, Zohran Mamdani, announced that 'one thousand New Yorkers won our lottery for affordable tickets to the World Cup ... the beautiful game belongs to everyone.' Having to run an affordable lottery suggests that maybe it doesn't." Natasha Chahal on FIFA and Trump's world cup.

Emma Peplow looks back to the Christchurch by-election of 1993.

Richard Williams reads a new biography of Brian Epstein: "A man who loved the theatre and classical music, he understood their adventurous creative instincts. When they made that first film, it was directed by the innovative Dick Lester rather than a Wardour Street hack. When the sleeve art of their second album was being prepared, he guided them towards Robert Freeman, whose photos of John Coltrane he had admired and who listened to the group when they showed him Astrid Kirchherr's black and white chiaroscuro Hamburg photographs as a potential template."

"Every day, in New York alone, millions pass by her. On Columbia University’s campus, at the Frick Collection, in Central Park, near City Hall, and at the Brooklyn entrance to the Manhattan Bridge. ... Yet the woman behind the face lived a life marked by exploitation, disappointment, and profound tragedy. Her death in 1996, at the age of 104, attracted almost no attention at all, as if history forgot all that she had been and given. The statues remain, but she was buried in an unmarked grave in northern New York state." Josie Cox tells the sad story of Audrey Munson, America's first supermodel.

Andrew Wakefield, autism and MMR: A forgotten aspect of the affair

It's been called "perhaps the most damaging medical hoax of the last 100 years". On 28 February 1998 a research paper primarily written by physician Andrew Wakefield, was published in The Lancet. It suggested there was a link between the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) and autism.

As the Wikipedia article on the affair explains, that paper was later found to be fraudulent:

The fraud involved data bias and manipulation, and two undisclosed conflicts of interest. It was exposed in a lengthy Sunday Times investigation by reporter Brian Deer, resulting in the paper's retraction in February 2010 and Wakefield's being discredited and struck off the UK medical register three months later. 

In the paper, Wakefield fabricated evidence to suggest a new "syndrome" existed, which he called "autistic enterocolitis". Wakefield had been employed by a lawyer representing parents in lawsuits against vaccine producers, and had reportedly earned up to US$43 million per year selling diagnostic kits for the non-existent syndrome he claimed to have discovered. He also held a patent to a rival measles vaccine at the time.

What's now largely forgotten is that Wakefield was for a time a hero of... well, the sort of people who are now members of Bluesky.

Private Eye took up the idea of a link between the MMR vaccine and autism, and pursued it long after most of Wakefield's supporters (including most co-authors of Lancet study) had walked away.

Eventually, the Eye's editor asked his own medical correspondent to conduct what he optimistically termed a "peer review" of its coverage of the affair. You can read it online.

Stephen Brook, writing in the Guardian, was not impressed:

For a magazine that often accuses newspapers of "burying" corrections, the boot seems on the other foot this week as we have to wait until page 29 and after eight other articles from its In The Back section to get the Eye's take on the Wakefield verdict.

An editor, particularly of what is partially an investigative publication, has to be prepared to follow hunches and go against the consensus sometimes, but you hope their hunches will be good ones and that they change course when it becomes obvious they've backed the wrong horse.

But it wasn't just Private Eye that backed Wakefield: a television film was made for Channel 5 with him as the hero. Titled Hear the Silence it starred Juliet Stevenson as the mother of an autistic child and Hugh Bonneville as Wakefield. (You can find it online, but I didn't tell you that.)

Though some praised the acting and the drama, there was much adverse criticism:

Jon Joseph in The Times wrote "there are definitely no shades of grey" with Wakefield's assertions treated as if they are "a law of nature, like gravity". 

Of the supposed plot presumed to originate with the drug companies as a means to discredit Wakefield, Ben Goldacre wrote in The Guardian of its utter implausibility as the patent on the MMR vaccine had lapsed, it was now generic and no longer highly profitable.

I've written this, not to heap blame on anyone, but to recapture a surprising and largely forgotten aspect of the affair.

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"What matters is not the books themselves, but the thinking they reward. They cultivate a taste for compression over depth, for transferable lessons over context, for confidence over uncertainty. They attract people who want the world to be legible in a handful of rules, who prefer inspiration to explanation, and who mistake momentum for understanding. Over time, this becomes a habit of mind: a way of approaching problems that privileges clarity and speed over patience and complexity." John Oxley fears British politics is suffering from Airport Book Brain.

Rosalind KennyBirch looks at the way Finland counters fake news. "There is no vaccine for fake news, but media literacy can come close."

Rose Runswick has posted Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman's election address from 1906. Here he is on the record of the Conservatives: "The legacy which they have bequeathed to their successors – and I say it in no partisan spirit, but under a full sense of responsibility – is in the main a legacy of embarrassment, an accumulation of public mischief and confusion absolutely appalling in its extent and its ramifications."

"The Israel-Palestine conflict is often framed as a religious struggle between Muslim and Jewish groups, but the witness of Palestinian Christians exposes the hollowness of that narrative. It is a nationalist struggle between Israelis and Palestinians." John McHugo highlights the plight of Palestinian Christians.

"Stoke-on-Trent says it is facing a heritage emergency and needs £325m in public and private funding to safeguard its historic sites and stories," reports Rebecca Atkinson.

Gráinne Maguire lists five things Is This Thing On? gets wrong about the world of stand up: "Will Arnett has all the natural funny bones of a dead family pet. He wears the same expression the entire time—startled and blinking, like Eeyore caught looking up porn at work and hauled into HR. Yet we're supposed to believe this set – more misguided late-night voice note than comedy – is all it takes for him to be embraced by the world of comedy."

A conspiracy theory from Neal Lawson: Keir Starmer was never meant to be prime minister

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Their influence on the far right means I don't enjoy conspiracy theories as much as I used to, but let's give a hearing to Neal Lawson in the Guardian:

Wes Streeting was always meant to be their Labour prime minister. The plan, hatched by a tiny clique of rightwing faction fighters, was this: find a candidate on whom they could fake a continuation Corbynism project to win the leadership. Then kick the ladder away from the people who backed them and the promises they made. 

At the next general election, given the scale of the Tory majority after 2019, get Labour back in the ring with more MPs and then hand over to Streeting. The real grownups would then be in charge and the subsequent election would be secured.

But no one reckoned with Covid, Tory turmoil and the collapse of the SNP. Suddenly Keir Starmer wasn't going to just lead Labour to a better defeat and a springboard for victory next time. Against the odds, he was going to win. 

Just as Jeremy Corbyn was Labour's accidental leader in 2015, Starmer was the party’s accidental prime minister in 2024.

This theory is firmly unsourced, but I have always been puzzled at Labour commentators confidence that Starmer would make a good prime minister when he had such a slight political record to be judged on.

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John McEvoy reveals that the government was advised Palestine Action is "highly unlikely" to advocate violence and that officials struggled to produce evidence the group posed a national security threat.

"The might of the MATs give them a power within the DfE that smaller schools do not have, highlighted here in a 2019 Schools Week article reporting that an academy leader boasted that he 'flicked away safeguarding concerns' raised by a whistleblower." Pam Jarvis explores the dark side of multi-academy trusts.

"Just in case anyone reading this doesn’t have an inkling of the relevant law, this is horseshit of the highest order. It is absolutely untrue that council tenants can be evicted in order to house asylum seekers. It is not a 'complex issue with legal and ethical considerations', it is a non-existent issue because it cannot legally happen." Giles Peaker is furious about what people may now see if they use Google to research something in the news.

Jennifer Quellette talks to two researchers whose work suggests that people who believe conspiracy theories don't realise that they are in a small minority.

"Officials would want to avoid the fate of Dunwich, where erosion led to skeletons sticking out of the dunes after plots were washed away by the sea in the 1920s. There are similar macabre tales relating to Eccles-on-Sea, which featured in the Domesday book of 1086 and was swallowed by the sea over a number of centuries. The church tower finally collapsed in a winter storm in 1895." Owen Sennitt on the debate over what to do with the graveyard at Happisburgh in Norfolk, which will be lost to coastal erosion.

Stephen Thomas Erlewine finds that the new box set chronicling the birth of Nick Drake's debut album Five Leaves Left offers some quiet revelations: "Hearing Drake speak his aural aspirations for songs – notably, he wants Made to Love Magic to sound 'celestial' – helps reframe the refined baroque arrangements of the finished album, underscoring the intentionality of the sumptuous, sighing strings."

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Blue Labour has become a destructive fantasy with little to say about the challenges of the country in which we live, says Marc Stears, who was one of the founders of the movement: "Everyone probably wants to reindustrialise, but we know that there is no future for the UK economy without a vibrant service sector. Everybody similarly wants strong defence. But there is no military alliance to be found in which the UK and Ukraine should be allied against France and Germany."

Eliot Higgins is not impressed by a report from the Cato Institute that claims public concern about misinformation is overblown: "The danger isn’t just that people believe lies. It’s that entire communities can become locked into belief systems that cannot be challenged - where loyalty replaces evidence, and disagreement feels like betrayal. That doesn’t merely distort truth; it breaks trust. When this happens at scale, it isn’t just bad information - it is a breakdown in how society makes decisions. We lose the ability to deliberate, to find common ground, to hold anyone accountable."

Brian Merchant has been collecting stories from tech workers at TikTok, Google and across the industry about how AI is changing, ruining, or replacing their jobs.

"Articles discussing the report offer lots of different answers as to why this happiness gap exists: better health care, high-trust culture, less pressure to excel academically. But when I asked parents and children in the Netherlands why they thought their children were so happy, they all had one answer: Dutch parents value giving their children independence, possibly above all else." Mary Frances Ruskell responds to a UNICEF report that suggests Dutch children are the happiest in the world.

"Attachments to places are how we make sense of the world around us. When these places are threatened, so too are our own places within the world": Ben Lockwood on the importance of mapping the meaning of forests in a time of destruction.

Caroline Davies visits an exhibition that explores Charles Dickens' love of the theatre and highlighs the dramatic impact of his works.

Prime minister's questions: Have the Tories given up?

Kemi Badenoch has a problem at prime minister's questions. Every time she attacks Labour on the economy, Keir Starmer simply has to hang the record of the last Conservative government round her neck to win the exchange.

But she has another, as the Guardian live politics blog pointed out. She lacks support from her own side of the House:

Towards the end of the session Greg Smith asked a question that backed up the Badenoch “jobs tax” critique. ... On its own, a single question like this is unlikely to make much impression. But half a dozen of them might.

(To be fair to the Tories, they did not get half a dozen backbench questions. They just got three, and the other two were devoted to Scunthorpe steelworks and the child killer Colin Pitchfork. There is a lottery to decide who gets called at PMQs, and maybe the Conservatives were just unlucky in their allocation this week. But maybe some of them are not bothering to bid for a question. In total just four Tory MPs spoke at PMQs today – exactly the same as the number of Liberal Democrats who got a question.)

You can get strange results from lotteries: the Tories did remarkably badly in the ballot for private member's bills held when the new parliament met after last year's general election.

But this lack of backbench questions may be a sign that the Tories have already written Kemi Badenoch off. Or it could be a sign they are simply demoralised. Or a sign they are too busy on Twitter reading the latest conspiracy theory from Elon Musk.

Whatever the reason for the Tories' lack of interest, it is telling that Josh Self chose to focus his piece about today's PMQs on the exchange between Starmer and Ed Davey on Trump and tariffs - and called it for Ed.

It's not teenage boys who form corrosive opinions because of social media: it's Kemi Badenoch

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Kemi Badenoch doesn't have time to watch television, she told, Nick Ferrari this morning, but she does know one thing about Adolescence:

"The story which it is based on has been fundamentally changed, and so creating policy on a work of fiction rather than reality is the real issue."

She's referring to a story that has been spread widely by right-wingers on social media, which maintains that the Netflix series Adolescence is based on a real case where a black boy stabbed a white girl.

The race of the boy was changed, the story runs, because of wokeness - or perhaps a global conspiracy involving George Soros, Bill Gates and Gary Lineker.

But this story, like many you find on social media, isn't true.

Here's Jack Thorne, who wrote the screenplay for Adolescence, in the Guardian a couple of weeks ago:

At first, we didn’t know why Jamie, the perpetrator of the attack, did it. We knew he wasn’t a product of abuse or parental trauma. But we couldn’t figure out a motive. Then someone I work with, Mariella Johnson, said: "I think you should look into 'incel' culture."

So the series wasn't written to expose incel culture: it was used as a plot device to develop an intriguing situation.

This is the reason I've been a little worried by the impact that Adolescence has had. Do we know it presented a true picture? Or is there an element of moral panic about a new means young people have found of enjoying themselves?

In fact, this seems to be what Badenoch was trying to get over. But, as ever, her tone was petulant and unpleasant - as though she resented anyone questioning her at all. And she topped her comments with a big fat cherry of a baseless conspiracy theory.

So while I'm not sure whether we should worry so much about the way social media affects teenage boys, I'm certain we should worry about the way it has affected Kemi Badenoch.

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"With Meta’s recent speech policy changes regarding immigration, in which the company will allow people to call immigrants pieces of trash, Mark Zuckerberg is laying the narrative groundwork for President-elect Trump’s planned mass deportations of people from the United States." Joseph Cox points to parallels between these changes and events in Myanmar in 2017, when Facebook was used to spread anti-Rohingya hate, and the military ultimately led a campaign of murder, torture and rape against the Muslim minority population. 

Eliza Mackintosh has better news from Finland, which is winning the war on fake news - a war it sees as crucial to safeguarding its democracy.

The Ferret fears that farmers' protests are being hijacked by conspiracist groups: " One farmer has described being added to a campaign WhatsApp chat after an invite by [James] Melville. He claimed the group was 'toxic' with members 'fighting amongst each other' about Covid-19 vaccines and discussing 'uprisings' against the WEF."

"There are over a thousand beavers living in the Tayside region of Scotland, for instance, widely thought to descend from beavers deliberately, and illegally, released in the early 2000s. In England, the New Forest population of pine martens are similarly thought to originate from illegal releases in the early 1990s." George Holmes, Darragh Hare and Hanna Pettersson report that illegal attempts to reintroduce lost species are surprisingly common.

Joel Morris explains how its producers make The Traitors such compelling viewing: "The first edit is of the round table scene at the end of each show (the climactic confrontation between the contestants, where they level accusations at each other and attempt to root out the rats in the nest). The editors cut together this part first, even though it’s the end of the show. Once that sequence is 'locked', they go back and make the events of that round table scene seem inevitable, by editing the day’s footage to set up the dramatic payoff that you see at the end."

"Aside from being a deliciously dark and humorous noir-tinged thrilled with some wicked one-liners, especially from Walker, Strangers on a Train is rich in Surrealist symbolism. Bruno is a madman, and the Surrealists were fascinated by madness." Sabina Stent argues that  Hitchcock's film is a truly Surrealist piece of art. 

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"Starmer was attempting a card trick that mainstream political parties across the West have tried to play in recent years - defeat the hard-right by borrowing their talking points and framing, and then somehow prove that you are better able to deal with this problem than they are." Matt Carr has no confidence in Keir Starmer's attempt to meet the Reform challenge to Labour.

"Syrians are under no illusion that the future will be hard, complicated and may end up being disappointing and even dangerous. Please can we all do them the courtesy of wishing them well, and offering support if it is requested, rather than writing them off now before they’ve even finished freeing and identifying the prisoners from Assad’s concentration camps?" Jonathan Brown calls for optimism about Syria.

Christine Jardine argues that hate crime legislation is not the right way to tackle sexism: "Having once felt the hate crime route was best, I now find the counter argument compelling. It is not just the worst cases – physical and verbal attacks or domestic abuse – that are the end result of misogynistic behaviour. It is everywhere, every day in so many ways."

"Conspiracy theories are not the reason Trump was elected. They are more like the oil that makes the process smoother or faster. What is really being described in the election result is not an electorate declaring it believes every line about theories of secret power structures running the world, but it is an expression of deep disillusionment: how it is to feel disenfranchised, to be poor, that the future is bleaker than the past." Gabriel Gatehouse and Matthew Sweet discuss what America’s rampant conspiracy culture means for truth and democracy now that some of its leading proponents may soon be in office.

Henrietta Billings, director of SAVE Britain’s Heritage, on why the Oxford Street M&S demolition decision exposes a broken planning system and how we need urgent reform to safeguard heritage assets and reduce embodied carbon emissions.

Judit Polgar, the strongest ever woman chess player, calls for the abolition of separate titles (such as woman grandmaster), with lower qualifying standards, for women players. Though they were introduced to encourage women players, she believes they tend to limit their ambition.

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"When I retired from professional chess in 2005, I channeled all of my energy into preventing Russia from sliding back into the hands of the KGB, the Soviet Union’s secret police and most sinister spy agency. Unfortunately, those efforts were unsuccessful: Vladimir Putin consolidated power and rebuilt an authoritarian state in the image of the Soviet regime under which I was born. Facing imminent arrest, I was forced into exile and have lived in New York since 2013. I never thought I would need to warn Americans about the dangers of dictatorship." Garry Kasparov endorses Kamala Harris.

James Chapman argues that, by backing Donald Trump, senior Conservatives have shown how far their party has fallen.

Anna Merlen says this Presidential election has seen some of America’s richest people promote - and apparently believe - ludicrous hoaxes.

"About a quarter of Europe’s bird population has been wiped out in the last four decades – that is half a billion fewer birds in the sky today compared with 1980. Four in 10 European tree species are classed as threatened, butterfly numbers are down by about a third, one in 10 bee species are dying out, and two-thirds of the habitats of ecological importance are in an unfavourable condition. A fifth of European species face extinction." Fiona Harvey shows how farm subsidies have wrecked Europe's landscapes.

"When November the 5th disappears, it will not be because of any ecumenical or secularist wisdom that consigns all potentially sectarian anniversaries to an atavistic scrapheap - it will, rather, be going the way of Opal Fruits and the Marathon Bar.  A holiday so close to the globally marketable Halloween is less than completely efficient from a multinational corporate perspective and streamlined advertising demands the obliteration of purely local celebratory occasions." Conrad Brunstrom ponders the future of Bonfire Night.

Joseph Earp remembers the last second-hand bookshop in Nottingham: "The Mansfield Road was once renowned for the number of 'antique' and specialist bookshops. By the 2000's only one of these bookshops would remain, Jermy and Westerman."

It's Freddie van Mierlo vs Russell Brand

The Guardian reports from Pishill on Oxfordshire

It is an idyllic, quintessentially English scene, but rake the surface and the embers of a fierce local row soon spark into life. On one side, people determined not to lose an 800-year-old pub; on the other, a magic amulet-toting, born-again Christian broadcasting "alt-right" views to the world from its environs.

Yes, it's Russell Brand.

The author of My Booky Wook and Booky Wook 2, Newsnight interviewee, former guest editor of the New Statesman and Guardian sports columnist, and recent adherent of whichever branch of Christianity requires you to prance about in your underpants with Bear Grylls, wants to take over the pub at Pishill:

Brand, who lives in a nearby village but often broadcasts from Pishill to his 6.83 million YouTube subscribers, saw an initial plan to convert the pub into a recording studio and a community space refused in February after more than 50 local objections. Residents argue the most recent iteration, which seeks a “mixed use of pub, ancillary accommodation, function room, media studio, offices”, would still leave them with nowhere to have a pint.

“No one believes he’s going to open the pub,” said Josh Robinson-Ward, who got married in the Crown’s function barn. “He’s said from the beginning he had plans to open the pub but never has and it’s unclear that he’ll have to open it if this goes through. From the off I think he thought that if he had enough money he could just do what he wants.”

But the forces of light have a champion:

Freddie van Mierlo, the local Liberal Democrat MP for Henley and Thame, said the Lib Dems were pushing the council to support pubs becoming assets of community value with tax relief.

He said the Crown should be opened solely as a pub. “Pubs are not the playthings of the wealthy; they are the heart of rural communities like Pishill and Stonor, and should be protected and cherished,” he said.

Accounting for the rise and rise of Russell Brand

I strongly recommend Ian Dunt and Dorian Lynskey's latest Origin Story podcast, which covers the rise and rise of Russell Brand:

Dorian and Ian reassess Brand’s extraordinary rise to fame in the 2000s in light of recent allegations of sexual misconduct and explore how British culture gave him a free pass. 

In 2013 Brand swapped sex and fame for a new compulsion, reinventing himself as a flamboyant agitator to great acclaim. In the void between Occupy and Corbynism, his verbose mishmash of self-help and socialism briefly made him a lion of the left. 

During the pandemic Brand embraced a darker shade of politics, promoting conspiracy theories about Covid-19, Ukraine and much more besides. After the allegations broke last year he went full crank, aligning himself with Robert F Kennedy Jr, Tucker Carlson and Alex Jones in the paranoid space.

As they say, this is a bizarre story of celebrity and conspiracy, addiction and attention, which says a great deal about where we are now.

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Elon Musk is not posturing as a deluded conspiracy theorist, argues Jeremiah Johnson, he really is one: "He essentially never posted about trans people or the gender wars five years ago. But one of his children came out as trans a few years back, got into left politics, completely cut contact with Musk and even changed her last name. And mysteriously, right around that time, Musk began to obsess about how progressive schools were turning kids trans."

Joe Lepper reports a University of Glasgow study that suggests child mortality and the number of  looked-after children could be slashed by around a third over the next decade if measures were put in place by the government to tackle child poverty.

"It is no longer possible to continue there without feeling like an under siege resistance fighter, trying to preserve humour, conversation, raising matters of personal and public interest, and frankly keeping self-respect, in the face of what has become a brittle, facile, deceitful, stupidly anger-driven culture that won’t leave you alone." Giles Peaker explains why he's leaving Twitter.

Janice Heppenstall on Robert Blincoe, 'the real Oliver Twist': "Throughout his fourteen years’ servitude he tried several times to escape and to alert the authorities to the sadistic torture and working conditions endured by the children.  Often, this resulted in even worse treatment for himself, yet he continued."

Martin Banks backs the campaign to restore Eurostar services to Ashford International and Ebbsfleet.

"For me, what has been lost with the digital age is the ‘magic’: the sense of wonder associated with the early history of photography, the physicality of the process and the relationship of maker to that which is made. I do not reject digital practices - on the contrary they are very much part of how I work. But I have chosen a dual path where analogue and digital work to each other’s strengths to achieve outstanding results." Katayoun Dowlatshahi shares the pleasures of analogue photography and the lost art of the darkroom.

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"The experience of that Royal Commission - on long-term care for older people - is instructive. It made four major recommendations relating to: free personal care, a cap on care costs for accommodation, the establishment of national care standards, and integration of services. We are still awaiting effective action on all of these." Bob Hudson asks why social care is never fixed.

Annie Hickox on the 'toxic positivity' - the dark side of all those simple recipes for dealing with unhappiness and depression that spread so frictionlessly across social media.

Privacy International says the use of social media monitoring by government and commerce is increasingly prevalent and largely unregulated. 

Thomas Horabin held North Cornwall for the Liberal Party at a 1939 by-election, defended it in 1945 to become the only parliamentary representative of West Country Liberalism, but crossed the floor to join Labour two years later. Jaime Reynolds and Ian Hunter weigh up his maverick career.

"There was something else in the house, unmentioned and unlabelled. A sort of shadowy presence that hovered by the back door. No one referred to it, so I kept quiet, but without ever really actually seeing anything I knew it was a boy. A boy of about 10 or 12, in short trousers and a cap. I acknowledged him as I walked by, much as I would acknowledge a single magpie, with a dip of the head and a murmured incantation." Esther Freud discusses Walberswick, Charles Rennie Mackintosh and ghosts.

Tom Moran shows that our false belief that Shakespeare had little knowledge of Latin and Greek - the basis of many a nutty theory about the authorship of his plays - rests on a misunderstanding of the meaning of "though" in a poem by Ben Jonson. Fascinating stuff.

Reform and The Man Who Was Thursday

If you believe Reform's leaders, then its activists and candidates are either plants or actors. At least, that's the leadership's defence whenever a new piece of controversy about the party hits the headlines.

It reminds me of the way conspiracy theorists of the left look at the news media. If a story's being covered, that proves it is a dead cat to distract us from something more damaging to the authorities. And if it's not being covered, that proves that someone powerful has taken out a super-injunction.

Perhaps Farage and Tice fear Reform will turn put to be like the Anarchist cell in G.K. Chesterton's The Man Who Was Thursday. In the course of the book, it's revealed that the cell's members are all police agents, there to keep an eye on the others.

Are there Liberal thinkers for good times and Liberal thinkers for hard times?

Politicians can be divided between those suited to good times and those suited to hard times, or so I suggested in a post I wrote here back in 2008.

Looking at some leading politicians of the day and of past days, I divided them like this:

Good times: Tony Blair, David Cameron, Nick Clegg, George Osborne, David Miliband.

Hard times: Gordon Brown, Margaret Thatcher, Vince Cable, Denis Healey, Alistair Darling

We have lived in hard times for so long now that it's hard to know who among today's politicians would be more suited to good times, so I'm not sure this categorisation is useful today.

But I have been wondering if, among Liberal thinkers, there are some suited to good times and some suited to hard times.

The growing threat of Russian aggression in Europe makes Karl Popper and Isaiah Berlin look more relevant than they did 20 or 30 years ago. It's unfair to dismiss them as 'Cold War Liberals', as many on the left do, but their views were formed as a reaction to tyranny and the threat of tyranny.

By contrast, I am an admirer of the postmodern Liberal philosopher Richard Rorty, yet when I came to write about him for Liberator in 2017, I found I had growing doubts about him. I did question Rorty's account of George Orwell, but there was a more fundamental doubt that I steered away from.

It was whether postmodernism's relaxed view of truth was so appealing in a word where Trump was US President and the internet was choked with lies and conspiracy theories.

Rorty, it seemed, was a Liberal thinkers for good times, not hard times.

You might think of Mill as a believer in progress, and thus a good times man. But I remember writing a seminar paper about On Liberty in which I commented on its pessimistic tone. One reason Mill wanted freedom of thought and speech was that he was dissatisfied with the intellectual climate of the day.

There is definitely an element of "All great men are dead, and I'm not feeling too well myself", in Mark Twain's words, about On Liberty.

So if I put Mill in the hard times column, it's more about his temperament than the fine details of his philosophy. 

And, for the same reason, he is joined there by Charles Masterman. Though Masterman was a practical politician - he was the minister who spent countless hours taking Lloyd George's health insurance act through the Commons in the face of implacable opposition from the Conservatives and the medical profession - there is an air of melancholy about his writings - notably The Condition of England.

Jo Grimond, by contrast, has a sunny temperament and that gets him into the good times club.

What do you think? Is this distinction useful?

The Conservative Party will eat itself

📮🗳️ Postal voting - it’s time to scrap it.

— Brendan Clarke-Smith MP (@Bren4Bassetlaw) May 7, 2024

Why would a right-wing Conservative MP want to scrap postal voting? 

I smell a conspiracy theory. The Tories really won the mayoral election in London or the West Midlands but were somehow cheated out of it by all those postal votes. 

It's nonsense, of course, but we should encourage Tories to believe in this conspiracy theory. That's because scrapping postal votes would harm them, not help them.

Her's another tweet that explains why - I assume BES is the British Electoral Study.

Party breakdown for 2019 from the BES probability sample (all modes, postal n=689) pic.twitter.com/WespXB9n7o

— Matt Singh (@MattSingh_) May 7, 2024

If I am reading this correctly, at the last election the Conservative Party won 43.7 per cent of the votes cast at polling stations and 49.3 per cent of votes cast by post.

As the Conservatives won 42.3 of all votes cast in 2019, I may have missed a subtlety or two. Perhaps it's that these figures rely on how respondents said they voted rather than how they actually voted or  that the sample is on the small side.

Still, Clarke-Smith's comments a good example of how the increasing influence of conspiracist thinking on the Tories is driving them mad.