Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Top 20 Liberal Democrat targets on 8 June



After the carnage of 2015, I was too scared to spend much time studying the general election results in detail.

Election Polling is made of sterner stuff and has produced a list of Liberal Democrat targets in order of the swing needed to win them. And the picture is more encouraging than I expected.

Here is the top 20:
  1. Cambridge (Labour) 0.58%
  2. Eastbourne (Conservative) 0.69%
  3. Lewes (Conservative) 1.07%
  4. Thornbury & Yate (Conservative) 1.54%
  5. Twickenham (Conservative) 1.63%
  6. Dunbartonshire East (SNP) 1.97%
  7. Kingston & Surbiton (Conservative) 2.39%
  8. St Ives (Conservative) 2.56%
  9. Edinburgh West (SNP) 2.93%
  10. Torbay (Conservative) 3.42%
  11. Sutton & Cheam (Conservative) 3,93%
  12. Bath (Conservative) 4.06%
  13. Burnley (Labour) 4.08%
  14. Bermondsey & Old Southwark (Labour) 4.36%
  15. Yeovil (Conservative) 4.67%
  16. Fife North East (SNP) 4.80%
  17. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (SNP) 5.62%
  18. Colchester (Conservative) 5.74%
  19. Cheltenham (Conservative) 6.06%
  20. Cheadle (Conservative) 6.08%

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Encouraging?

Today's snap poll implies a national LD-Con swing of 3% and a national Lab-LD swing of 4%. That implies 3 current seats (including Richmond Park) would be lost to the Tories, and on the basis of your list 1 would be gained from Labour. It looks as though the party would be struggling to improve on its 2015 showing.

Paul Anthony Valentine said...

Small amend! 2015 surely in the opening line?

Jonathan Calder said...

Thank you.

David Bertram said...

Looking forward to helping win back Twickenham!